【SMM 알루미늄 속보】 알코아, 노르웨이 알루미늄 제련소 전력 계약 Statkraft와 체결

New Fed Chair Warsh adjusted the Fed's communication framework during his first quarterly press conference, downplaying the emphasis on dot plot guidance and cautioning the market against overinterpreting policymakers' interest rate projections. He did not submit his own individual projections. Warsh stated that the current high inflation is sustained by three long-term factors—energy, tariffs, and housing—rather than a short-term one-off disturbance, and that price stability is the primary policy goal. Warsh did not lock in a fixed interest rate path, stressing that rates could be adjusted in either direction at every meeting and that the Fed would not proactively cut interest rates solely to boost the economy. Over the longer term, AI is expected to improve productivity and ease inflation pressures after 2027, becoming the core prerequisite for rate cuts. Warsh's overall stance was hawkish, further extinguishing near-term market expectations for rate cuts and driving a notable rise in market-implied probabilities of a year-end interest rate hike.

At the US Fed's June FOMC meeting, the federal funds rate was held unchanged at the 3.50%–3.75% range, with a unanimous 12–0 vote. The biggest revision in the meeting statement was the complete removal of forward guidance and wording with a dovish tilt, such as "additional adjustments," while the statement was also significantly shortened—marking a shift to a fully data-dependent policy framework. On the economic projections front, the 2026 GDP growth forecast was lowered to 2.2%, while the core PCE inflation forecast was raised to about 3.3%. The dot plot showed a notable hawkish shift, with the median rate for the end of 2026 rising to 3.8%; 9 officials projected rate hikes, while only 1 projected a cut. Notably, the Fed's new Chair, Warsh, did not submit a dot plot. The market read this as signaling that the easing cycle has come to an end and that rate hike risks have risen markedly.

트럼프 미국 대통령은 이란에 대한 압박을 이어가며, 미·이란 합의 발효 후 제공된 60일의 기간을 활용해 협상을 계속 추진할 것임을 분명히 밝히면서 여전히 경제적 압박을 중요한 협상 수단으로 삼고 있다. 트럼프 대통령은 현재 약 700척의 선박이 호르무즈 해협을 정상 통과 중이라고 언급했다. 그는 이란이 60일 기한 내 반드시 합의에 이르러야 하며, 그렇지 않으면 불쾌한 조치들을 마주하게 될 것이라고 명시적으로 요구했다. 다만 트럼프 대통령은 상황이 반드시 그 정도로 악화되지는 않을 것이라고도 생각했다.