June 18, 2026 Tin Midday Review
Tin markets in and outside China declined in tandem. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 423,200 yuan/mt and closed the morning session at 412,500 yuan/mt, down 2.46%. On the LME, three-month tin was last quoted at 53,940 yuan/mt, down 2.81%.
On the macro front:
(1) On the macro policy front, at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on June 18, the US Fed released its June interest rate decision, holding the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%—the fourth time standing pat this year—with the decision passed by all 12 votes. This marked the first policy meeting chaired by new Chairman Warsh, and the statement completely removed the previous dovish forward guidance, shifting policy to a data-dependent, neutral-to-hawkish framework. The latest dot plot showed that 9 of the 18 members projected at least one rate hike in 2026, while the Fed significantly raised US inflation expectations and lowered economic growth forecasts, causing market expectations for rate cuts within the year to largely dissipate.
(2) On the industrial policy front, on June 18, forum sub-sessions continued to deliver a number of long-term favorable policies. The central bank officially announced the creation of a repo facility for overseas central banks, narrowed the short-end interest rate fluctuation band, and launched the offshore RMB foreign exchange pilot in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone. The CSRC clarified expanding the STAR Market’s fifth listing standard to cover AI, advanced memory, and advanced packaging sectors, and established targeted low-interest credit for semiconductors. The National Semiconductor Fund Phase III added 10 billion yuan in quota tilted toward the computing power industry chain, supporting medium and long-term demand expectations for electronics manufacturing and metal materials. Six government departments jointly issued the Shanghai offshore finance action plan to enhance cross-border trade and investment financing facilitation.
On the spot front, overall spot market transactions remained sluggish this morning. Given the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the holiday period is not particularly long, and with prices fluctuating at highs, downstream enterprises showed little apparent stockpiling demand.
Overall, the decline in tin prices was mainly driven by a shift to a hawkish policy stance by overseas central banks and asset rotation triggered by expectations of liquidity tightening. Additionally, with the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, some bulls closed out positions. Although expectations of tightening will continue to cap metal prices on the macro front, the computing power industry chain will limit the scope for a deep downward correction. Besides digesting the interest rate decision, the market is also awaiting the actual implementation of the Middle East geopolitical memorandum to be signed on the 19th. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.
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