Hot metal production peaks, iron ore prices may continue to consolidate at lows [SMM Daily Imported Ore Briefing]

Published: Jun 17, 2026 17:14

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The most-traded iron ore contract continued to decline today. The most-traded I2609 contract closed at 747.5 yuan/mt, down 2.61% from the previous trading session, with the decline widening notably. Port spot prices also fell, down 10-15 yuan/mt from the previous day. Traders diverged in their actions—some suspended offers to wait and see, while others sold at prevailing market prices. Steel mills maintained a cautious sentiment with a strong desire to bargain down prices, slowing their procurement pace. Overall market trading atmosphere was subdued, and spot transaction volumes were limited as of now.

According to an SMM survey, as of June 17, the blast furnace operating rate among the 242 steel mills tracked by SMM stood at 90.67%, up 0.20 percentage points MoM. The sample mills' daily average hot metal output reached 2.465 million mt, up 5,300 mt MoM. However, looking ahead to next week, as pressure from losses at steel mills intensifies, more maintenance plans are arising, and hot metal output may reach a turning point. On the demand side, a marginal weakening is expected, which, combined with ongoing supply-side pressure accumulation and the industrial off-season effect, will jointly weigh on iron ore prices, causing the decline to deepen further. In the short term, market pessimism dominates, and iron ore prices are expected to continue to consolidate at lows.

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