Semiconductor Counter-Trend Rebound Coupled with Geopolitical Reversal Outside China, SHFE Tin Contract Center Pulled Back [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Commentary, June 12, 2026

The most-traded SHFE tin contract rebounded, opening at 399,270 yuan/mt and closing the morning session at 410,750 yuan/mt, up 2.97%. LME tin held up well in tandem, with the three-month contract temporarily quoted at $53,150/mt, a gain of 0.19%.

On the macro front:

(1) The global semiconductor chain continued to strengthen, with tight supply-demand for AI computing power and memory chips driving the sector higher. Prices of key electronic specialty gases such as tungsten hexafluoride rose amid overseas supply curbs and tighter export controls in China, while the Phase III national semiconductor fund boosted domestic substitution, led by semiconductor materials and equipment. Downstream demand for AI servers and advanced packaging was robust, driving up expectations for tin demand in solders, bumps, and substrates.

(2) The Middle East situation saw wild swings. Trump first announced a military strike on Iran that evening, only to abruptly cancel it five hours later, stating that an agreement had been reached with Iran which might be signed in Europe this weekend. He also pledged to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the maritime blockade after the deal, Xinhua Net reported. However, Iranian officials denied the deal had been approved, saying only that negotiations were ongoing.

In the spot market, as the most-traded SHFE tin contract moved back above 400,000 yuan/mt this morning, trading activity turned quiet again. Coupled with the approaching weekend, overall willingness to purchase remained low.

Overall, from a medium to long-term perspective, robust demand from advanced packaging and computing hardware chains lent some support to the market. In the short term, however, geopolitical volatility remained high, and weak spot purchases at elevated prices also capped the futures market's sustained upward momentum. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain wild swings in the near term. Going forward, continued attention is needed on whether the geopolitical memorandum of understanding will be finally signed and on how semiconductor demand expectations actually materialize.