[SMM Analysis] Manganese Ore "Golden March" Strength Hard to Sustain, "Silver April" Expectations Lean Cautious

In March, China's manganese ore market trended upward MoM driven by multiple overseas cost factors. South African ore led the gains, with South African semi-carbonate at Tianjin Port up 10.42% MoM and South African high-iron ore up 8.77% MoM, making them the core market-leading varieties. Other manganese ores also rose to varying degrees.

The core driver of this rally came from geopolitical tensions and rising overseas costs, coupled with mild port inventory pressure and marginal demand improvement, keeping the overall market holding up well.

Cost side was the core logic behind this rally. As the world's largest manganese ore supplier, South Africa's approved electricity cost increase for the new fiscal year reached 8.76% in April 2026, pushing up rigid costs in mining, ore processing, and other stages, significantly strengthening the willingness to hold prices firm. Meanwhile, sustained US-Iran tensions drove up international oil prices, not only directly increasing diesel consumption costs at mines but also pushing up global ocean freight rates and war risk premiums, raising CIF prices for imported manganese ore. Regarding overseas pricing, the overseas market collectively raised prices in April, with South African semi-carbonate ore reaching a maximum quote of $4.75/mtu. May quotes continued to rise, with forward cost pressure continuously transmitting to China's spot market.

Demand Side Showed a Divergent Recovery Pattern. South China side, Yunnan production areas are about to enter the rainy season, and hydropower cost advantages will emerge, with alloy plant operating rates expected to gradually rebound. Northern producers were less affected by electricity prices, with controllable cost pressure and weak willingness to control or cut production, maintaining stable rigid demand for manganese ore. At month-end in March, industry associations circulated voluntary production cut messages, but these were non-mandatory initiatives with relatively limited impact on manganese ore contraction in March.

Inventory side provided effective price support. At the end of March, nationwide manganese ore port inventories were approximately 5.01 million mt, at a historically median level. Among them, Tianjin Port inventories were approximately 3.71 million mt, with South African ore accounting for over 70% and high-grade ore sources being tight. Port cargo pick-up was smooth with relatively small inventory pressure, and traders showed strong sentiment to hold back from selling, providing a foundation for firm spot prices.

Looking ahead to the April manganese ore market, the core variable for price trends focuses on downstream SiMn producers' production cut situations. Based on actual conditions in early April, SiMn producers in Ningxia had largely achieved comprehensive production cuts, a few producers in Inner Mongolia followed with production cuts, while SiMn plant operating rates in south China rose slightly, showing regional divergence. Notably, manganese ore prices already showed a downward trend in early April. Influenced by the market psychology of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn, combined with weak SiMn futures performance, SiMn spot prices lacked upward momentum. Currently, SiMn producers mostly restocked based on rigid demand with no stockpiling plans for now, and overall support for manganese ore was moderate.

Considering multiple factors, China’s manganese ore prices were expected to edge down slightly MoM in April, but the specific trajectory still required close attention to the actual implementation of downstream SiMn production cuts. Although the cost side still had supportive bullish factors such as higher South African electricity prices and geopolitical developments, weak demand was set to continue capping price gains. Manganese ore prices were likely to decline MoM in April, and in the short term, the overall manganese ore market was expected to remain in the doldrums.