【SMM Steel】 EU CBAM 기한, 2026년 출범 앞두고 그린수소 DRI 철강 프로젝트 물결 촉발

다음 표는 2026년 11월 6일 상하이선물거래소(SHFE)와 다롄상품거래소(DCE)의 철금속 및 비철금속 거래 동향을 보여줍니다.

[SMM Analysis] Futures Drive Finished Steel and Raw Material Prices Up; Stainless Steel Raw Materials Diverge While Profits Hold Steady This week, stainless steel finished products and various raw materials rose in tandem, with steel mill profits remaining generally stable. Based on 304 cold-rolled calculations, the profit margin from current raw material accounting recovered to 2.47%, while the profit margin from inventory raw material accounting stood at 2.88%. The nickel pig iron segment halted losses and strengthened this week. Driven by higher SS futures, stainless steel finished product prices rose and steel mill profit margins expanded, boosting market sentiment for NPI and increasing inquiries. Coupled with market talk that Indonesia's nickel ore quotas may be further tightened next year, upstream smelters and traders adopted a hold-back-from-selling stance, pushing high-grade NPI prices higher. As of Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesian high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China rose by 9.5 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap also halted losses and strengthened. The rise in SS futures lifted finished products and high-grade NPI, steel mills raised their scrap procurement prices, and scrap quotes followed higher. However, this round of gains was driven more by expectations in futures, while the reverse invoicing policy continued to constrain goods circulation. Actual procurement volumes at steel mills remained limited, and market trading stayed sluggish. The cost advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI provided bottom support, but end-use demand has yet to show substantial improvement, and prices are likely to consolidate on a strong note in the short term. As of Friday, the tax-exclusive price of mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 450 yuan/mt. Chrome-related raw materials diverged from nickel-related materials and scrap, extending their weak downward trend. South African ferrochrome enterprises gradually resumed production, and with China's ferrochrome market already in oversupply, destocking pressure is expected to increase further going forward. Meanwhile, chrome ore prices pulled back, and ferrochrome costs...

주간 기준 선재는 FOB 톤당 500달러, 슬래브는 478달러, 열연은 515달러를 유지했으며, 각형 빌릿은 톤당 470달러에서 468달러(공장도)로 하락했다. 인도네시아 열연은 수라바야 CFR 톤당 약 533달러, 베트남 CFR 톤당 532~535달러로 지난주 530~533달러에서 상승했다. 내수가격은 대체로 보합세였다. 선재는 kg당 약 11,000루피아, 철근은 10,000~10,200루피아, 용융아연도금강판은 15,000~15,500루피아였으며, 열연은 제철소들이 거래 성사를 위해 가격을 낮추면서 9,900~10,000루피아로 소폭 하락했다. 빌릿 가격은 제철소들이 구매자 목표가에 근접하면서 하락한 반면, 중국산 판매자들은 추가 인하 의사가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 베트남에서는 포모사 하띤(CIF 톤당 548~561달러)과 호아팟(CIF 톤당 559~560달러)의 높은 달러 오퍼가 구매자들을 수입 쪽으로 유도하고 있으나, 인도네시아의 2월 인도 조건은 포모사의 12~1월 선적에 비해 불리하게 작용하고 있다.