High BACK price spread between futures contracts suppresses spot premiums, expected to turn to discount next week [[SMM Weekly Review of Shanghai Spot Copper]]

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       In Shanghai, spot premiums jumped initially and then pulled back. Supported by low inventory in the early stage, they rose, but in the second half of the week, the continuous widening of the price spread between futures contracts to BACK 500 yuan/mt suppressed spot premiums, which gradually pulled back from 200 yuan/mt. It is expected that next week, as the delivery date approaches, spot premiums will weaken to near parity. The market's quote against the SHFE copper 2506 contract may be at a premium of 500 yuan/mt. As of Friday this week, the open interest of the current-month SHFE copper contract remained at 40,000 lots, corresponding to a delivery volume of approximately 200,000 mt, while the existing volume of futures warrants was only about 20,000 mt; the gap is significant. Be cautious about the risk of the price spread between futures contracts widening again before the contract rollover. It is expected that in the first half of next week, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2505 contract will continue to trade at a discount.

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