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Recently, influenced by the rebound in futures prices and the MHP coefficient fluctuating at highs. As of now, the MHP coefficient (relative to the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) is 84%-85%, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP is $12,730/mt (Ni contained).
Demand side, this month, due to weakened supply, MHP prices have been fluctuating at highs. Nickel salt smelters, concerned about costs, showed weaker sentiment in MHP procurement this month, with some smelters cutting production or increasing the proportion of recycled materials as raw materials. Supply side, affected by the flood disaster in April, Indonesian MHP production was limited, and port arrivals in May are expected to be significantly impacted. Cost side, the latest PNBP royalty policy implemented in Indonesia is tentatively set to take effect on the 26th, which will directly increase the sales cost of nickel ore. Market feedback indicates that the price increase for hydrometallurgical nickel ore procurement caused by this policy was already reflected in early April. Moreover, the royalty imposed on hydrometallurgical ore itself is relatively low. For a 1.3 grade nickel ore, it requires an additional payment of about $0.75/wmt compared to before the PNBP amendment. Therefore, the PNBP policy is expected to have a relatively limited impact on MHP production costs in the short term.
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