SMM April 30 Report:
As of Thursday, April 30, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell by 25,500 mt from Monday to 129,600 mt, a decrease of 52,100 mt from the previous Thursday. This marks the ninth consecutive week of weekly destocking, with the destocking speed accelerating. Currently, inventories have pulled back by 247,400 mt from the year's high and are 275,100 mt lower than the 404,700 mt recorded YoY.
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Specifically, inventories in the Shanghai region fell by 14,700 mt from Monday to 97,300 mt, while inventories in Jiangsu decreased by 5,300 mt to 11,900 mt. Despite the arrival of imported copper, the high operating rates of downstream enterprises in the near term, combined with pre-holiday restocking activities, have led to a rapid decline in inventories in east China. In Guangdong, inventories fell by 0.62 to 14,600 mt, primarily due to reduced arrivals and increased outflows from warehouses, as reflected by the daily average outflows from warehouses in Guangdong repeatedly hitting new year-to-date highs.
Looking ahead, it is understood that the arrivals of imported copper after the holiday are not expected to increase significantly, and the arrivals of domestically produced copper are also unlikely to surge, with total supply only expected to increase slightly. In terms of downstream consumption, copper rod enterprises have reported that new orders have already started to decline, and the operating rate is expected to drop after the holiday. Therefore, we believe that after the holiday, there will be a situation of increased supply and decreased consumption, and copper inventories may experience a slight inventory buildup.
