SMM Daily Brief: Rebar Prices Decline Amid Weak Sentiment Ahead of Labor Day Holiday

SMM Daily Brief on Rebar

Title: Approaching Labor Day Holiday, Can Weakness in Construction Steel Prices Be Reversed?

Today, rebar futures fluctuated downward, closing at 3,100, down 1.21% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, most regions saw looser quotations, with declines ranging from 10 to 30 yuan/ton. Market sentiment weakened noticeably compared to the past two days, and trading activity was subdued. With pre-holiday restocking largely completed, traders mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach, resulting in generally muted overall trading performance.

From a fundamental perspective:

Supply side: According to SMM's weekly maintenance survey, this week's rebar production affected by maintenance stood at 1.1543 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a slight increase in supply. However, looking ahead to May, long-process steel mills have secured strong orders for billet exports, raising expectations of reduced finished steel output due to billet sales. Meanwhile, short-process mills continue to face declining operating rates due to scrap procurement challenges and poor profitability. Post-holiday finished steel supply pressures are expected to ease.

Demand side: With futures trending downward, market transactions remained tepid, supported only by limited pre-holiday restocking demand. As the Labor Day holiday approaches, markets across regions are gradually entering holiday mode, leading to subdued trading enthusiasm and