SMM: Global PV Module Market Supply and Demand Outlook; Supply-Demand Pattern in China's PV Market Expected to Improve in H2 2026

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Apr 28, 2025 13:46
At the 2025 SMM Zero Carbon Pathway - PV and ESS Summit hosted by SMM, Mao Tingting, a senior analyst in the SMM PV industry, shared insights on the topic of "Global PV Module Market Supply and Demand Outlook." She stated that SMM expects global new PV installations to range between 475 GW and 495 GW by 2025, with the annual growth rate declining to -1% to 3%. The period from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be a destocking cycle for China's PV module market. As companies adjust their operating rates, accelerate the phase-out of outdated production lines, and the government strongly stimulates demand, it is anticipated that the supply-demand pattern in China's PV module market will improve by the second half of 2026. By 2027, the market structure will gradually become clearer, with dual growth in domestic consumption and overseas export demand driving a significant increase in China's PV module supply, potentially leading to inventory buildup throughout the year.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
[SMM ๋ถ„์„] ์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ „ํ™˜ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”: ์ •์ฑ… ๋ชฉํ‘œ์—์„œ ์‹ค์งˆ์  ์ดํ–‰๊นŒ์ง€
5์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM ๋ถ„์„] ์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ „ํ™˜ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”: ์ •์ฑ… ๋ชฉํ‘œ์—์„œ ์‹ค์งˆ์  ์ดํ–‰๊นŒ์ง€
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM ๋ถ„์„] ์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ „ํ™˜ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”: ์ •์ฑ… ๋ชฉํ‘œ์—์„œ ์‹ค์งˆ์  ์ดํ–‰๊นŒ์ง€
[SMM ๋ถ„์„] ์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ „ํ™˜ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”: ์ •์ฑ… ๋ชฉํ‘œ์—์„œ ์‹ค์งˆ์  ์ดํ–‰๊นŒ์ง€
์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ช‡ ๋…„๊ฐ„ ์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ „ํ™˜์€ ๋šœ๋ ทํ•œ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™” ์กฐ์ง์„ ๋ณด์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๋‹ค ์•ผ์‹ฌ ์ฐฌ ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋ฅผ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜๊ณ , ๊ด‘์—… ํƒˆํƒ„์†Œํ™”, ๋„์„œ ์ง€์—ญ ์ „๋ ฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ์—…๊ทธ๋ ˆ์ด๋“œ, ์ˆ˜์ƒ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ๋ฐ ํ˜„์ง€ ์ œ์กฐ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰ ํ™•์ถฉ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”์ง„๋จ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ, ์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘, ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ €์žฅ ์žฅ์น˜ ๋ฐ ๋งˆ์ดํฌ๋กœ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๋“œ ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ์žฅ๊ธฐ์  ์„ฑ์žฅ ์ž ์žฌ๋ ฅ์ด ๋”์šฑ ํ™•๋Œ€๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
5์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: HVR Solar, ์ธ๋„์— 1.2GW TOPCon ์…€ ๊ณต์žฅ ๊ฑด์„ค]
8์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: HVR Solar, ์ธ๋„์— 1.2GW TOPCon ์…€ ๊ณต์žฅ ๊ฑด์„ค]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: HVR Solar, ์ธ๋„์— 1.2GW TOPCon ์…€ ๊ณต์žฅ ๊ฑด์„ค]
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: HVR Solar, ์ธ๋„์— 1.2GW TOPCon ์…€ ๊ณต์žฅ ๊ฑด์„ค]
์ธ๋„ PV ์ œ์กฐ ๋ฐ EPC ๊ธฐ์—… HVR Solar๋Š” ์šฐํƒ€๋ฅดํ”„๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ ์ฃผ ์•”๋กœํ•˜์— ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 1.2GW ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ํƒœ์–‘์ „์ง€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์‹œ์„ค์„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•  ๊ณ„ํš์ด๋‹ค. ์ด ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” SNEC 2026 ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ์ค‘ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ตญ์ œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ํŒŒํŠธ๋„ˆ์™€ ์–‘ํ•ด๊ฐ์„œ(MoU)๋ฅผ ์ฒด๊ฒฐํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” TOPCon ์…€ ์žฅ๋น„๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ Shenzhen Han's Photovoltaic Equipment, ํ™”ํ•™ยท๊ฐ€์Šค ์œ ํ‹ธ๋ฆฌํ‹ฐ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ Gentech Technology, ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋ผ์ธ ํ†ตํ•ฉ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ Indygreen Technologies ๋“ฑ์ด ํฌํ•จ๋œ๋‹ค. HVR์€ ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๊ฐ€ ์ธ๋„์˜ ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง์„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์ž… ์˜์กด๋„๋ฅผ ๋‚ฎ์ถ”๋ฉฐ, 500๊ฐœ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์ง์ ‘ ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ฐฝ์ถœํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค.
8์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: European Energy, ๋ผํŠธ๋น„์•„ 148MW ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋‹จ์ง€ ๊ฐ€๋™ ๊ฐœ์‹œ]
8์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: European Energy, ๋ผํŠธ๋น„์•„ 148MW ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋‹จ์ง€ ๊ฐ€๋™ ๊ฐœ์‹œ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: European Energy, ๋ผํŠธ๋น„์•„ 148MW ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋‹จ์ง€ ๊ฐ€๋™ ๊ฐœ์‹œ]
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: European Energy, ๋ผํŠธ๋น„์•„ 148MW ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋‹จ์ง€ ๊ฐ€๋™ ๊ฐœ์‹œ]
๋ด๋งˆํฌ์— ๋ณธ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๋‘” European Energy๊ฐ€ ๋ผํŠธ๋น„์•„์— 148MW ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ํƒ€๋ฅด๊ฐˆ๋ ˆ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ๋ฅผ ์ค€๊ณตํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฒค์ธ ํ•„์Šค ์ž์น˜๊ตฌ์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ ์ด 8,000๋งŒ ์œ ๋กœ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์•ฝ 154,550MWh์˜ ์ „๋ ฅ์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•ด ์•ฝ 6๋งŒ ๊ฐ€๊ตฌ์— ๊ณต๊ธ‰ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” ์• ํ”Œ๊ณผ์˜ 110MW ๊ธฐ์—… ์ „๋ ฅ ๊ตฌ๋งค ๊ณ„์•ฝ(PPA)์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ง€์›๋˜๋ฉฐ, European Energy๋Š” ์ด๋ฅผ ๋ฐœํŠธ ์ง€์—ญ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ๋‹จ์ผ ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ ๊ธฐ์—… PPA ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์ง€ ์ดํ•ด๊ด€๊ณ„์ž๋“ค๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋œ ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” European Energy์™€ ๋ด๋งˆํฌ ์—ฐ๊ธฐ๊ธˆ ์‚ผํŽœ์…˜์ด ๊ณต๋™ ์†Œ์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
8์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
At the 2025 SMM Zero Carbon Pathway - PV and ESS Summit hosted by SMM, - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)