Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on April 28, 2025
As of the lunchtime close today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2505 was temporarily quoted at 260,900 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.5% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday trading range was 259,340-263,350 yuan/mt. Trading volume and open interest contracted slightly on a MoM basis, with market participants trading cautiously.
Policy Easing Expectations: US Treasury Secretary Bessent recently stated that "high tariffs between China and the US are unsustainable," suggesting that both sides may partially ease trade frictions in the coming months. This news has alleviated market concerns about suppressed demand for tin used in PV welding strips (due to the US tariff hike on Southeast Asian solar products), supporting a recovery in tin price sentiment.
Uncertainty Risks: The Trump administration may still resume aggressive tariff policies. US Fed Governor Waller warned that "if unemployment rises, it may support an interest rate cut," with macro policy expectations fluctuating, dampening bullish confidence.
Supply-Side Disruptions: Coexistence of Production Resumptions and Short-Term Shortages
The production resumption at the Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has entered its second phase, with daily average production gradually rebounding, but full recovery is not expected until June. The Wa State production resumption meeting in Myanmar is imminent, and if successful, incremental supply may be released in two months, indicating growing long-term supply pressure.
Spot Market: Traders reported sluggish trading today, with high prices suppressing downstream stocking willingness. Smelters held prices firm and were reluctant to sell, intensifying market wait-and-see sentiment.
