Q2 alumina prices likely to walk a rocky road with market turbulence and supply surge on the rise

게시됨: Apr 28, 2025 11:22
The global alumina market has endured a dramatic roller‑coaster in early 2025, witnessing a severe price slump in the first quarter and a raft of fresh supply hitting the market in the recent weeks.

The global alumina market has endured a dramatic roller‑coaster in early 2025, witnessing a severe price slump in the first quarter and a raft of fresh supply hitting the market in the recent weeks. While analysts now eye a price floor in coming months, forecast revisions evidently highlights the fragility of near-term price momentum.

Q2 alumina prices likely to walk a rocky road with market turbulence and supply surge on the rise
This AI-generated image is for representational purposes only

As of April 16, the benchmark price for Australian alumina stood at USD 347.50 per tonne on a FOB (Free on Board) basis — the price that covers the cost of transporting the goods to the port and loading them onto the ship, with the buyer covering the cost from that point onwards. This price point represents nearly a 50 per cent drop from where it stood at the beginning of January.

In comparison, Brazilian alumina exports are currently trading at a consistent premium over the Australian benchmark. The ‘FOB Brazil Atlantic Differential (AD)’ is a measure of how much more Brazilian alumina is fetching in the market relative to the Australian benchmark. As of the same date, this differential stood at a USD 20 per tonne premium. In other words, buyers are paying USD 367.50 per tonne for Brazilian alumina versus USD 347.50 per tonne for Australian alumina.

What’s noteworthy is that this USD 20 per tonne premium has remained stable throughout the first quarter (Q1) of the year.

Simultaneously, China’s domestic ex‑works Shanxi price slid to RMB 2,850 per tonne, reflecting widespread bearish sentiment.

The slump was primarily driven by the anticipated ramp-up of new refinery capacity across Asia. Indonesia’s Mempawah plant, a 1 million tonnes per annum JV between PT Inalum and Antam, began trial runs in late 2024, while Hangzhou Jinjiang and Shandong Nanshan each pushed ahead with million‑tonne expansions. Collectively, these projects promised to flood the market with an estimated 3 to 4 million tonnes of fresh alumina in Q2 and Q3, possibly leaving buyers reluctant to chase higher prices.

Log in https://www.alcircle.com/news/q2-alumina-prices-likely-to-walk-a-rocky-road-with-market-turbulence-and-supply-surge-on-the-rise-113883 to read the full story for FREE

Source credit: https://www.alcircle.com/news/q2-alumina-prices-likely-to-walk-a-rocky-road-with-market-turbulence-and-supply-surge-on-the-rise-113883


데이터 출처 설명: 공개 정보를 제외한 모든 데이터는 SMM이 공개 정보, 시장 커뮤니케이션 및 SMM 내부 데이터베이스 모델을 기반으로 가공한 것입니다. 본 자료는 참고용이며 의사결정 권고를 구성하지 않습니다.

문의 사항이 있거나 자세한 정보를 원하시면 아래로 연락해 주시기 바랍니다: lemonzhao@smm.cn
리서치 보고서 열람 방법에 대한 자세한 내용은 아래로 문의하시기 바랍니다:service.en@smm.cn
관련 뉴스
Xingfa Aluminum Reports Mixed H1 2026 Results: Revenue Up, Profit Down
1분 전
Xingfa Aluminum Reports Mixed H1 2026 Results: Revenue Up, Profit Down
더 보기
Xingfa Aluminum Reports Mixed H1 2026 Results: Revenue Up, Profit Down
Xingfa Aluminum Reports Mixed H1 2026 Results: Revenue Up, Profit Down
On August 26, Xingfa Aluminum released its interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2026. During the period, revenue reached 9.693 billion yuan, up 3.97% YoY; profit attributable to owners of the company was 171 million yuan, down 36.97% YoY.
1분 전
Shunbo Aluminum Reports 18.54% Revenue Growth, Expands in Cast and Wrought Aluminum Markets
1분 전
Shunbo Aluminum Reports 18.54% Revenue Growth, Expands in Cast and Wrought Aluminum Markets
더 보기
Shunbo Aluminum Reports 18.54% Revenue Growth, Expands in Cast and Wrought Aluminum Markets
Shunbo Aluminum Reports 18.54% Revenue Growth, Expands in Cast and Wrought Aluminum Markets
On August 26, Shunbo Aluminum disclosed its semi-annual report. The company achieved revenue of 8.447 billion yuan in H1, up 18.54% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 195 million yuan, up 6.02% YoY. The company has completed its strategic layout for the aluminum processing industry and has achieved a dual-wheel-driven strategic layout of "secondary cast aluminum alloy + secondary wrought aluminum alloy" advancing in coordination. In the cast aluminum alloy segment, the company relies on 1.05 million mt of capacity across four production sites to continuously expand the market and steadily increase its share of the Chinese market and enterprise profitability. In the wrought aluminum alloy segment, the company is actively building a second growth curve by acquiring Chongqing Aobo, which has 50,000 mt of aluminum plate/sheet and strip capacity, to enter the wrought aluminum market, and by promoting the construction and commissioning of the Anhui Shunbo Phase II project, extending toward deep aluminum processing and high-value-added products.
1분 전
Lizhong Group Reports 30.32% Revenue Growth in 2026 Semi-Annual Report, Q2 Net Profit Hits Record High
1분 전
Lizhong Group Reports 30.32% Revenue Growth in 2026 Semi-Annual Report, Q2 Net Profit Hits Record High
더 보기
Lizhong Group Reports 30.32% Revenue Growth in 2026 Semi-Annual Report, Q2 Net Profit Hits Record High
Lizhong Group Reports 30.32% Revenue Growth in 2026 Semi-Annual Report, Q2 Net Profit Hits Record High
On August 26, Lizhong Group released its 2026 semi-annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 18.822 billion yuan, up 30.32% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 577 million yuan, up 43.81% YoY. Of this, Q2 net profit attributable to the parent company reached 378 million yuan, up 58.12% YoY and up 90.49% QoQ, setting a new record high for single-quarter profitability. During the reporting period, the company's three main businesses developed in coordination, with production, sales, and revenue scale all achieving growth across segments. The secondary cast aluminum alloy segment achieved revenue of 11.093 billion yuan, up 35.16% YoY; the aluminum alloy wheel segment achieved revenue of 6.236 billion yuan, up 25.49% YoY; and the aluminum-based functional master alloy segment achieved revenue of 1.492 billion yuan, up 17.87% YoY. The company fully leveraged its integrated industry chain advantages, continuously optimizing overall operational efficiency and ensuring the stable operation of its main businesses through multi-dimensional collaborative measures such as co-building and sharing R&D innovation platforms, coordinating concentrated procurement of raw materials, connecting upstream and downstream industry chain resources, and complementing the strengths of each business segment. The company's high-end transformation of its aluminum alloy wheel business has achieved notable results. Forged wheels, with their superior product performance and significant weight reduction effects, align with the lightweighting trends of high-end NEVs, luxury brand vehicles, and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, and industry market demand has continued to grow. The company currently has forging capacity of 500,000 units in China, and is simultaneously building forging production lines at its overseas sites in Mexico and Thailand, with long-term total forged aluminum alloy wheel capacity planned to reach 2 million units. Compared with conventional low-pressure cast aluminum alloy wheels, forged wheels command a higher selling price per unit and significantly leading gross margins. In H1 2026, the company's forged aluminum alloy wheel production and sales continued to grow, reaching 347,100 units, up 395% YoY, effectively enhancing the company's overall profitability.
1분 전