SMM HRC Daily: Futures Weaken Amid Declining Social Inventory and Steady Demand

【SMM HRC Daily Review】Social Inventory Continues to Decline Well! Futures Market Under Pressure?

HRC futures prices weakened today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,204, down 0.12%. In the spot market, merchants lowered their offers, and downstream sentiment remained cautious, with overall trading performance weaker than yesterday. The HRC supply-demand balance data released today showed a slight increase in production this week, while social inventory continued to decline well: SMM's statistics for 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) indicated HRC social inventory at 3.6052 million mt, down 229,500 mt WoW, a 5.98% WoW decrease, and a 13.79% YoY decline. Demand exceeded expectations. In the short term, tariff conflicts persist, but their impact on the ferrous metals series, especially steel prices, remains limited. On the fundamental side, both domestic and export demand show some resilience, and HRC prices are expected to have limited upside or downside in the near term. The most-traded contract is projected to fluctuate between 3,160 and 3,275.