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Recently, influenced by the continuous rise in futures prices and the increase in the MHP coefficient, as of now, the MHP coefficient (relative to the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) stands at 84%-85%, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP is $12,611/mt (Ni contained).
Demand side, some nickel salt producers still have raw material restocking needs in Q2, but due to the persistently high MHP pricing coefficient, nickel salt enterprises remain in a wait-and-see attitude, temporarily slowing down the procurement process. Supply side, affected by recent flood disasters, Indonesian MHP production is limited, and a significant impact is expected in April. Cost side, the latest PNBP royalty policy implemented in Indonesia is tentatively scheduled to take effect on the 26th, which will directly push up the sales cost of nickel ore. Market feedback indicates that the price increase for hydrometallurgical nickel ore procurement caused by this policy has already been reflected in early April. Moreover, the royalty levied on hydrometallurgical ore itself is relatively low. For a 1.3 grade nickel ore, it is required to pay about $0.75/wmt more than before the PNBP amendment. Therefore, the PNBP policy is expected to have a relatively limited transmission effect on MHP production costs in the short term.
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