Spot consumption was slightly weak at high prices, and the upper range of aluminum price fluctuations still faced pressure. [Institutional Commentary]

On Tuesday, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract closed at 19,745 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. LME aluminum rose 0.21%, closing at $2,390/mt. The average spot price of SMM was 19,880 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt, with a premium of 40 yuan/mt. The average spot price of Nanchu was 19,830 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt, with a discount of 5 yuan/mt. According to SMM, on April 21, aluminum ingot inventory was 673,000 mt, down 16,000 mt from Thursday; aluminum billet inventory in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 196,700 mt, down 12,500 mt WoW.

Macro news: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) significantly lowered the global economic growth forecast in its April World Economic Outlook report and warned that the rapid escalation of trade tensions and extremely high policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity. US Treasury Secretary Besant stated that he believes trade tensions between major countries will ease, but negotiations with the Asian power have not yet begun.

On the macro front, as US Treasury Secretary Besant hinted at easing international trade tensions, market risk sentiment stabilized. On the fundamental side, after a brief rebound in aluminum prices yesterday, suppliers were clearly willing to sell at high levels, and the transaction premium pulled back again, with the futures market following the decline. Market concerns about the sustainability of consumption during the transition between peak and off-peak seasons and export worries remain strong, and the upward pressure on aluminum prices has been verified again. Currently, aluminum prices have once again reached the upper resistance level of the April fluctuation range, and we remain optimistic about the effectiveness of this resistance in the short term, expecting aluminum prices to maintain a fluctuating trend.