The Industry Landscape Under the US Tariff Hike: Significant "Rush to Export" Effect in Steel, Optimistic Export Outlook for PV

Amid US tariff hikes, how various industries can better "go global" has drawn significant market attention.

At the 14th China Steel Logistics Summit held recently, guests including Cai Jin, President of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, and Guan Qingyou, Dean of Rujis Financial Research Institute and Vice President of the China Association for Private Economy Research, expressed optimism about domestic economic development regarding the impact of US tariffs.

Guan Qingyou, Dean of Rujis Financial Research Institute and Vice President of the China Association for Private Economy Research, believes that while trade frictions bring challenges, they also create opportunities to spur companies to increase R&D investment, enhance resilience, and boost global competitiveness. All parties should seek new opportunities in this challenge.

At the event, multiple attendees analyzed the current export situation across different industries. Overall, although the Chinese steel industry is indirectly impacted by US tariff policies, steel exports have continued to rise due to a "rush to export" effect. The PV industry, as one of the new three major export sectors, faced challenges such as a decline in export value and lower prices in 2024, but industry insiders remain optimistic about its development prospects.

Steel Exports Surpass 10 Million mt in March, Crude Steel Production Up 4.6%

Focusing on the steel industry, as the world's largest steel producer and exporter, China's steel industry has been indirectly affected by US tariff policies. According to customs data, China's direct steel exports to the US in 2024 were 890,000 mt, maintaining a level of 70-900,000 mt over the past five years, accounting for only 0.8% of total steel exports.

Pan Fujie, Director of the Steel Logistics Committee of CFLP and CEO of Shanghai Zhuogang Chain, stated at the meeting that China's direct steel exports to the US are minimal, but the tariff impacts on third countries like Southeast Asia and Mexico may indirectly affect domestic steel exports.

Regarding the current steel export situation, Chen Yiqian, Deputy Secretary General of the China Iron and Steel Association, noted that under the US tariff hike, the "rush to export" effect is evident. Chen revealed that in March, China's steel exports once again exceeded 10 million mt, reaching 10.456 million mt, up 5.7% YoY. Data shows that from January to March, cumulative steel exports reached 27.429 million mt, up 6.3% YoY, outperforming the same period last year.

Zuo Geng, Chief Economist at Minmetals Economic Research Institute, believes that Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are essential routes for China's steel industry to "venture westward." "The huge domestic demand and the advantage of the entire industry chain, combined with the application of new quality productive forces, are the greatest advantages for China to win in international competition and go global."

For the outlook of the steel industry, Chen Yiqian stated that from the supply side, crude steel production in Q1 2025 slightly increased by 0.6% YoY, with a significant 4.6% increase in March. This indicates that companies still have a strong impulse to expand production when their operating benefits improve slightly. "We must maintain strategic resolve and avoid falling into the vicious cycle of increasing production whenever steel prices rise, leading to losses, and further production exacerbating those losses."

New PV Installations Expected to Remain High, Green Energy Transition Continues

In addition to the steel industry, the PV industry, as one of the new three major export sectors, saw a decline in product export value, but industry insiders remain optimistic about its development prospects.

Wang Shuang, Director of Membership Services at the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and Deputy Secretary General of the Photovoltaic Building Committee, revealed that in 2024, PV product export value continued to decline, with mixed results in export volumes across different segments. The export value of PV products decreased to 32 billion US dollars in 2024, down more than 33% YoY, marking two consecutive years of decline. Product prices also continued to fall, with module export prices dropping by more than 50% in 2024, following a 30% drop in 2023. Monthly module export values were significantly lower than in 2023.

In 2024, both prices and output values in the PV industry declined to varying degrees. Wang Shuang believes that the PV industry is currently in a difficult adjustment period and needs to strictly control downstream applications selling below cost.

According to Wang Shuang's analysis, polysilicon prices showed a rapid downward trend in H1 2024, stabilizing in H2. Wafer prices rapidly declined in H1 2024, then first decreased and later rebounded in H2, with some recovery in 2025. Battery prices generally followed the upstream trends in 2024, with a slight rebound after 2025.

Due to continuously declining prices, the output value of the PV manufacturing sector has shown a downward trend. Wang Shuang stated that from the manufacturing perspective, the YoY growth rate of production from polysilicon to modules was 10%, but this growth rate is significantly lower compared to 2023, which saw a growth rate exceeding 60%. Although export volumes have increased, the growth rate has slowed.

On the application side, China's new PV installations reached 277 GW, up 28% YoY. While the YoY growth rate has increased, it has been declining since 2023. The segment with the highest growth rate is polysilicon, despite an increase in production, it has accumulated some inventory.

Wang Shuang remains optimistic about the future development of the PV market. She expects that in 2025, global new PV installations will grow by more than 10%, with the global PV market installation scale reaching between 531 GW and 583 GW.

"In terms of policy, large-scale wind and solar power projects are less affected by new policies, and the industry's major policies clearly follow the 'new-old demarcation' principle with a grace period. Additionally, the overall electricity demand continues to grow steadily, and the green energy transition process is ongoing," said Wang Shuang.