Under the "Tightening Spell" of Tariffs: Review of Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Imports and Exports in March and Outlook for April [SMM Analysis]

SMM April 22:

According to customs data, China's exports of unwrought zinc alloy in March were 224.05 mt, up 47.96% MoM, but down 29.15% YoY. The cumulative exports from January to March were 907.26 mt, up 11.77% YoY. Meanwhile, China's imports of unwrought zinc alloy in March were 3,536.77 mt, down 8.7% MoM and 13.01% YoY. The cumulative imports from January to March were 10,991.44 mt, up 1.36% YoY.

The MoM increase in China's unwrought zinc alloy exports in March was mainly due to the shipment of orders affected by the Chinese New Year in February, which drove the export volume in March. By region, the top three countries for China's unwrought zinc alloy exports in March were Vietnam (113.83 mt, 50.81%), Bangladesh (73.64 mt, 32.87%), and Cambodia (21.11 mt, 8.98%). The top three countries for unwrought zinc alloy imports were South Korea (1,255.51 mt, 35.50%), Japan (704.39 mt, 19.92%), and Australia (583.1 mt, 16.49%).

From the current situation, the "tariff curse" still has a significant impact on China's die-casting zinc alloy exports. According to the current understanding, the end-use products of die-casting zinc alloy have been affected by tariff disturbances recently, with export orders to the US partially canceled or postponed. Meanwhile, companies are cautious about the development of subsequent export orders, believing that the impact of tariffs will gradually become apparent in 1-2 months. In the short term, there is no news of a large-scale "rush to export" in the die-casting zinc alloy market. Against the backdrop of the US suspending tariffs on other regions for 90 days, if domestic companies engage in a large amount of re-export trade to retain export orders, China's unwrought zinc alloy export data in April will show remarkable performance. At the same time, as of now, the RMB exchange rate center in April has shown a downward trend, which may provide some support for exports. However, if subsequent exports or re-exports are hindered, China's die-casting zinc alloy exports may show a weakening trend. In the long term, the "surplus" products may flow back to the domestic market, further dividing the domestic market, and China's unwrought zinc alloy imports are expected to be compressed to some extent.

     (The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Customers should make decisions cautiously and not replace independent judgment with this. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)

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