The sporadic transaction prices did not show a further downward trend. The alumina price is expected to fluctuate and adjust mainly. [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.22

Futures: In the night session, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,850 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,851 yuan/mt, a low of 2,826 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,830 yuan/mt, down 7 yuan/mt, or 0.24%, with an open interest of 213,000 lots.

Ore: As of April 21, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $86.88/mt, down $1.86/mt from the previous trading day, mainly due to some low-price transactions and offers. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average was $86/mt, down $2/mt from the previous day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average was $87/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average was $80/mt, down $1/mt from the previous day.

Spot Alumina: On Monday, 3,000 mt of alumina was traded in Guizhou, with the transaction price at around 2,945 yuan/mt ex-factory Guizhou. In Xinjiang, some alumina was procured through tenders by aluminum plants, with the transaction price at around 3,190 yuan/mt delivered to Xinjiang.

Industry News:

1. Bauxite Imports: According to China Customs, China imported 16.47 million mt of bauxite in March 2025, up 14.23% MoM and 39.06% YoY. By country, imports from Guinea were 12.999 million mt, up 21.16% MoM and 47.73% YoY; imports from Australia were 2.535 million mt, up 7.30% MoM and 2.20% YoY; non-mainstream bauxite imports totaled 931,000 mt.
2. China Alumina Imports and Exports: According to China Customs, China exported 296,700 mt of alumina in March 2025, up 105.9% YoY; imported 11,200 mt of alumina, down 96.3% YoY; the net alumina import was -285,600 mt, down 278.8% YoY. From January to March 2025, China’s cumulative alumina imports were 88,800 mt, down 90.6% YoY; cumulative alumina exports were 701,600 mt, up 66.4% YoY; cumulative net alumina imports were -612,900 mt, down 216.6% YoY.
3. Primary Aluminum Imports and Exports: According to China Customs, China imported 222,000 mt of primary aluminum in March 2025, up 10.9% MoM and down 11.0% YoY. From January to March 2025, China’s cumulative primary aluminum imports were 563,000 mt, down 21.7% YoY. China exported 9,000 mt of primary aluminum in March 2025, up 153.9% MoM and 643.0% YoY. From January to March 2025, China’s cumulative primary aluminum exports were 21,000 mt, up 857.4% YoY. From January to March 2025, China’s cumulative net primary aluminum imports were 563,000 mt, down 21.7% YoY.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Report: According to SMM data, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 38 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract’s latest transaction price at 11:30 on April 21.

Warrant Report: On April 21, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 24 mt to 287,700 mt from the previous trading day. In Shandong, the total registered alumina warrants remained flat at 3,307 mt. In Henan, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 2,106 mt to 9,000 mt. In Guangxi, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 1,502 mt to 41,700 mt. In Gansu, the total registered alumina warrants remained flat at 16,500 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered alumina warrants increased by 3,584 mt to 217,100 mt.

Overseas Market: As of April 21, 2025, the FOB alumina price in Western Australia was $348/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $20.55/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.31, translating to a domestic mainstream port selling price of around 3,123 yuan/mt, 243 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window closed.

Summary: Due to concentrated maintenance at alumina refineries in April, the operating capacity of alumina continued to decline, dropping to 82.88 million mt/year as of last week. The tightening supply of alumina in the short term has slowed the decline in alumina prices, with a slight rebound in prices in the north. However, as maintenance gradually ends and new capacities come online, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to rebound, and alumina prices are still under pressure in the medium and long term. In the short term, alumina prices are expected to enter a phase of volatile adjustment.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]