The sentiment in the polysilicon market is downward, and modules will face production cuts. [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM April 21 News:

Silicon Metal

Prices

Last week, spot prices in the silicon metal market continued to weaken, with oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China ranging from 9,700 to 10,000 yuan/mt. The main futures contract fell below 9,000 yuan/mt due to factors such as capital sentiment. Market sentiment remained bearish, with silicon prices staying at low levels.

Production

Spot prices of silicon metal have dropped to a decade low, and losses on production for silicon enterprises have widened. The operating rate of silicon enterprises on the supply side is expected to continue declining.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions as of April 18 was 612,000 mt, flat WoW. Among this, social ordinary warehouses held 137,000 mt, down 1,000 mt WoW, while social delivery warehouses held 475,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), up 1,000 mt WoW.

Polysilicon

Prices

Over the weekend, the price of N-type recharging polysilicon was 39-45 yuan/kg, and the price of N-type dense polysilicon was 38-42 yuan/kg. The polysilicon market showed a downward trend in intended prices, with no actual transactions reported at the previously mentioned 37 yuan/kg. Transactions are expected to gradually unfold by month-end, with market focus on the actual transaction prices of mainstream purchase volumes.

Production

Last week, a production line in Inner Mongolia resumed operations after maintenance, bringing a slight increase in subsequent production, which had limited impact on the current market supply and demand. Attention in May will be on the resumption of production lines in Sichuan.

Inventory

In the most recent week, the transaction atmosphere for polysilicon was limited, with some previously signed orders being shipped, resulting in minimal inventory fluctuations.

Module

Prices

In the current module market, the mainstream transaction price for N-type 182mm modules in centralized projects was 0.719-0.732 yuan/W, with the average price down 0.014 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price for N-type 210mm modules was 0.734-0.747 yuan/W, with the average price down 0.014 yuan/W. The price of TOPCon distributed 182mm modules was 0.724-0.728 yuan/W.

Production

Module scheduled production in April is expected to reach 60 GW, with production cuts anticipated in early May.

Inventory

The number of module orders for spot delivery in April increased significantly, leading to a rapid decline in domestic finished product inventories.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Prices

Currently, the price of domestic inner-layer sand is 60,000-75,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand is 36,000-45,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand is 20,000-25,000 yuan/mt. Last week, leading enterprises raised their quotes for middle-layer high-purity quartz sand, but downstream enterprises have yet to make purchases. The transaction activity in the domestic sand market remains limited, and recent quotes from import sand traders have also increased slightly. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the near future.

Production

The supply of quartz sand has remained stable recently, with no immediate risk of shortages in imported sand.

Inventory

Downstream crucible enterprises currently have sufficient raw material inventories, resulting in limited purchases of quartz sand. Inventories are expected to remain high.

PV Glass

Prices

3.2mm Single-Layer Coating: The price of 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was 22.0-23.5 yuan/m², with the price range remaining stable but the transaction center slightly lower.

3.2mm Double-Layer Coating: The price of 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was 23.5-24.5 yuan/m², with the price range remaining stable but the transaction center slightly lower.

2.0mm Single-Layer Coating: The price of 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was 13.5-14.5 yuan/m², with the price range remaining stable but the transaction center slightly lower.

2.0mm Double-Layer Coating: The price of 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was 14.5-15.5 yuan/m², with the price range remaining stable but the transaction center slightly lower.

Production

Recently, there have been no new or cold-repair production lines domestically, and the domestic supply side saw a slight increase due to the ramp-up of previously started production lines.

Inventory

Last week, domestic glass enterprise inventories increased by about 1 day MoM. This week, some module enterprises are expected to start purchasing, which may slow the upward trend in inventories.