The weekly operating rate declined again, further tightening supply. The price of alumina in the north rebounded slightly. [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.21

Futures: In the night session, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,811 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,824 yuan/mt, a low of 2,787 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,814 yuan/mt, down 17 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.61%, with an open interest of 219,000 lots.

Ore: As of April 18, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $88.74/mt, up $0.03/mt from the previous trading day, mainly due to a slight increase in caustic soda prices. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at $88/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $87/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $81/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Industry News:

1. Bauxite Port Inventory: According to SMM statistics on April 18, the total bauxite inventory at nine domestic ports was 17.13 million mt, an increase of 1.25 million mt from the previous week.
2. According to SMM, data released by the Kazakhstan Statistics Bureau showed that the country's production of unprocessed aluminum and alumina from January to March was 447,432 mt, down 3.5% YoY.
3. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 16.47 million mt of bauxite and its concentrates in March 2025, up 14% MoM and 39.1% YoY. The cumulative import from January to March was 47.07 million mt, up 29.9% YoY.
4. Recently, Tangshan City has made significant breakthroughs in industrial layout, with two major aluminum hydroxide projects with a total investment of over 43.5 billion yuan successively launched, each with an annual planned capacity of 7.4 million mt.

Basis Report: According to SMM data, on April 18, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 54 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30.

Warrant Report: On April 18, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 6,588 mt to 287,700 mt compared to the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in Shandong remained unchanged at 3,307 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Henan decreased by 600 mt to 11,100 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi remained unchanged at 43,200 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Gansu remained unchanged at 16,500 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang decreased by 5,988 mt to 213,500 mt.

Overseas Market: As of April 18, 2025, the FOB alumina price in Western Australia was $348/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $20.55/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.32, translating to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 3,127 yuan/mt, 257 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window closed.

Summary: Due to concentrated maintenance at alumina refineries in April, the operating capacity of alumina has continued to decline, dropping to 82.88 million mt/year as of last week. The tightening supply of alumina in the short term has slowed the decline in alumina prices, with a slight rebound in northern alumina prices. However, as maintenance gradually ends and new capacities come online, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to rebound. In the medium and long term, alumina prices remain under pressure. In the short term, alumina prices may enter a phase of volatile adjustment.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]