Futures Market:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905.5/mt. As the impact of US tariffs was gradually digested by the market, LME lead showed a "V" trend throughout the day, with its center of operation shifting upward compared to the previous day and moving above $1,900/mt. Meanwhile, LME lead inventories reversed their trend and declined, and LME lead gradually strengthened during the night, eventually closing at $1,927.5/mt, up 1.23%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2505 contract opened at 16,750 yuan/mt. With a significant drop in SHFE lead warrant inventories, SHFE lead fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 16,805 yuan/mt during the session and eventually closing at 16,780 yuan/mt, up 0.36%. Its open interest stood at 27,495 lots, down 796 lots from the previous trading day.
》Click to view SMM lead spot historical quotes
Macro Perspective: Premier Li Qiang stated that at some critical time windows, efforts should be made to push forward various policy measures early and quickly to positively influence expectations. The White House: No call received from China. US media: Overestimated the impact of tariffs on China. Trump: 100% confident of reaching a trade agreement with the EU. Reports suggest that the EU is considering export restrictions against the US in case of failed trade negotiations. US Treasury Secretary: Negotiations with Japan are moving in a very satisfactory direction. Shigeru Ishiba: Gaps remain between Japan and the US positions. Additionally, tariff threats are dragging down economic prospects, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected.
In the lead spot market yesterday, SHFE lead maintained a consolidation trend, with suppliers quoting prices in line with the market, and the number of quotes increased compared to the previous day. Primary lead smelters' ex-factory cargoes were sold at parity (against the SMM 1# lead average price). Divergence in secondary lead smelters' sales widened, with some standing firm on quotes and holding back sales. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price, while more companies chose to expand discounts, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 100-50 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM 1# lead average price. Downstream demand was mainly just-in-time procurement, and there were no significant signs of improvement in spot order market transactions. In the trade market, quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai were at premiums of 20-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract.
Inventory: As of April 17, LME lead inventories decreased by 1,500 mt to 281,625 mt. SMM lead ingot social inventories in five regions totaled 62,900 mt, down 6,600 mt from April 10 and down 3,700 mt from April 14.
》Click to view SMM metal industry chain database
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
At the beginning of the week, the SHFE lead 2504 contract completed delivery, and post-delivery cargoes re-entered the circulation market. Some downstream companies gradually started to pick up goods, leading to an expanded decline in lead ingot social inventories. Recently, lead prices have been in the doldrums, while scrap battery prices remain high, squeezing secondary lead smelting profits. Secondary lead companies are reluctant to sell at low prices, and in some regions, secondary refined lead prices are already higher than primary lead. Downstream just-in-time procurement leans toward primary lead, which also accelerates the consumption of social inventories by downstream companies. Additionally, due to losses, secondary lead companies' production enthusiasm is generally low, and some companies have already cut production. Coupled with the traditional consumption off-season factor, some downstream companies plan to cut production or take holidays this week. Lead ingot supply and demand are expected to decline, and lead prices will continue to fluctuate.
