The operating capacity of alumina decreased again, leading to a short-term tightening of supply. The transaction price of alumina in the north rebounded slightly. [SMM Alumina Weekly Review]

SMM April 17 News:

Price Review:

As of this Thursday, the SMM regional weighted index stood at 2,869.90 yuan/mt, down 16.93 yuan/mt WoW. Shandong reported 2,800-2,880 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt WoW; Henan reported 2,830-2,920 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt WoW; Shanxi reported 2,200-2,900 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; Guangxi reported 2,860-2,920 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; Guizhou reported 2,940-2,980 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt WoW; Bayuquan reported 3,110-3,190 yuan/mt.

Overseas Market:

As of April 17, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $348/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $20.55/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.32, translating to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 3,130 yuan/mt, 260 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices, keeping the alumina import window closed. This week, two new overseas spot alumina transactions were recorded, with prices rebounding slightly from the previous $330/mt FOB Western Australia: 1) On April 15, 30,000 mt of overseas alumina was traded at $365/mt FOB Western Australia, with a May shipment; 2) On April 15, 30,000 mt of overseas alumina was traded at $347.5/mt FOB Bunbury/Kwinana or FOB Gladstone, at the seller's option, with a June shipment.

Domestic Market:

According to SMM data, as of this Thursday, the total metallurgical-grade alumina production capacity in China was 105.02 million mt/year, with an operating capacity of 82.88 million mt/year. Weekly production was 1.589 million mt, and the national alumina operating rate decreased by 1.85 percentage points WoW to 78.92%, mainly due to maintenance at some alumina refineries. Shandong's alumina operating rate remained flat WoW at 91.74%; Shanxi's alumina operating rate increased by 0.57 percentage points WoW to 71.60%; Henan's alumina operating rate decreased by 2.14 percentage points WoW to 60.42%.

During the period, spot alumina transactions were sluggish, with sporadic transactions showing mixed price changes. Spot alumina prices in north China rebounded slightly, while prices in south-west China declined slightly. An aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for some alumina, with a delivery-to-factory price of around 3,180 yuan/mt; Shanxi traded 5,000 mt of alumina at 2,870 yuan/mt; Henan accumulated 8,000 mt of alumina transactions at 2,830-2,920 yuan/mt; Guizhou traded 3,000 mt of alumina at an ex-factory price of 2,945 yuan/mt.

Overall:

Due to concentrated maintenance at alumina refineries in April, operating capacity continued to decline, dropping to 82.88 million mt/year this week. Alumina supply tightened in the short term, and the decline in alumina prices slowed this week, with prices in north China rebounding slightly. However, as maintenance gradually concludes and new capacities come online, operating capacity is expected to rebound, and the expectation of ample alumina supply remains. In the short term, alumina prices may enter a phase of volatile adjustment.

Source: SMM

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