China's unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis exports by month

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 506,000 metric tons in March 2025, showing a year-on-year slight decrease of 1.17% but a significant month-on-month increase of 24.02%. Cumulative exports from January to March totaled 1.365 million metric tons, marking a 7.6% year-on-year decline, indicating persistent downward pressure on the industry. An SMM survey revealed that export enterprises completed new rounds of import order negotiations in March, with order volumes gradually recovering, providing some support for March's export volume. However, industry differentiation emerged as leading sheet, strip, and foil enterprises experienced export order declines, primarity due to small enterprises capturing market share through low-price strategies.

Currently, the reignited trade war coupled with narrowing import-export profit margins has weakened export competitiveness, leading enterprises to adopt predominantly pessimistic outlooks on future orders. Although potential growth space exists in East Asia, under the dual impacts of slowing global economic growth and escalating trade barriers, local enterprises predominantly maintain cautious procurement strategies, making large-scale demand unlikely to materialize in the short term. Given overseas markets entering a window period for tariff policy adjustments and the current buyer-seller standoff, April's aluminum product exports are expected to show a month-on-month decline. Subsequent attention should focus on the timing of tariff policy changes in major export destinations.