The supply-demand imbalance in the lead market is not yet prominent, and lead prices are expected to consolidate. [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures Market:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,924/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead trading was sluggish, mostly fluctuating between $1,908 and $1,918/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead surged strongly, reaching a high of $1,938/mt. However, LME lead inventory increased by nearly 10,000 mt in a single day, causing LME lead to pull back after the rally, especially during the late-night session, where it erased all gains. LME lead finally closed at $1,902/mt, down 0.47%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2505 contract opened at 16,830 yuan/mt. The futures market saw a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with SHFE lead consolidating around 16,800 yuan/mt for an extended period. Until the late session, dragged down by the decline in LME lead, SHFE lead's trading range shifted downward to around 17,500 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 16,760 yuan/mt, down 0.27%. Its open interest stood at 31,579 lots, a decrease of 498 lots compared to the previous trading day.

》Click to view SMM lead spot historical quotes

Macro Perspective: China announced a joint statement with Vietnam on continuously deepening the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership and accelerating the construction of a China-Vietnam community with a shared strategic significance. According to related reports, EU-US trade negotiations are at a standstill, with the EU expecting the US not to revoke most tariffs on Europe, leading to a decline in the euro and the US dollar ending a five-day losing streak. Canada will conditionally exempt some countermeasures against US auto imports. Additionally, the London Metal Exchange (LME) announced yesterday the approval of four LME-approved warehousing facilities located in Hong Kong.

Spot Fundamentals :  

In the lead spot market yesterday, SHFE lead was in the doldrums. As April 15 was the delivery day for the front-month contract, some suppliers focused on delivery matters, resulting in few quotations. Meanwhile, ex-factory quotations for primary lead smelters were moderate, with an increase in spot discounts against futures. Mainstream production areas quoted primary lead at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SHFE lead 2505 contract. Secondary lead smelters also expanded discounts for shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM 1# lead average price. Downstream enterprises made purchases as needed, with more bargaining, and market activity improved. In the trade market, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions quoted premiums of 0-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract.

Inventory: As of April 15, LME lead inventory increased by 8,225 mt to 265,550 mt. SHFE lead warrant inventory stood at 58,378 mt, a decrease of 145 mt from the previous day.

》Click to view SMM metal industry chain database

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

Recently, the domestic lead-acid battery market has seen an intensification of the off-season trend, with more downstream enterprises cutting production or taking holidays. Meanwhile, SHFE lead delivery has ended, and the current market has limited circulation of delivery brands. However, subsequent delivery sources re-entering the circulation market may drag down spot discounts. Additionally, the imbalance in scrap battery supply is prominent, with secondary lead enterprises raising purchase prices against the trend, increasing the cost of secondary lead, which will become the main support for lead price movements. In the short term, lead ingots have not seen a significant inventory buildup, and the spot market is relatively balanced in terms of buying and selling. Before the impact of imported lead, lead prices are expected to maintain a consolidation trend.