CEO Massage: Energy Transition Trends & Industry Chain Price Forecasts

At the CLNB 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Chain Expo - Academician & Top-Tier Entrepreneurs Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Logan Lu, CEO of Shanghai Metals Market shared insights on the topic "Reflections on the Industry Chain from the Perspective of Energy Transition." He discussed the development of the new energy industry under the backdrop of energy transition, the safety challenges faced during its growth, the "high-quality development" challenges, and geopolitical risks, among others. He also proposed potential "breakthrough strategies" for enterprises. Below is a summary of his speech:

Amid the ongoing energy transition, the development of new energy is unstoppable.

Energy Structure Transition (1/3): Traditional energy still dominates energy supply, but renewable energy is growing the fastest.

According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), from 2023 to 2024, the growth rate of renewable energy supply was around 5.8%, and it is expected that by 2030, the share of renewable energy supply will increase to around 30%.

Energy Structure Transition (2/3): The share of clean energy in power supply is steadily increasing, with China and the EU standing out.

According to IEA data, from 2007 to 2024, the share of clean energy (renewable energy and nuclear power) in power supply has steadily increased, reaching around 40% by 2024. Among the power generation structures of various countries, the EU and China have particularly high shares of clean energy, with the EU at around 50% and China at around 35%.

Energy Structure Transition (3/3): The life cycle and LCOE cost perspective of power structure changes.

From the perspective of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), over the next decade, the LCOE of clean energy such as PV, wind power, and nuclear power will gradually decline, while the LCOE of traditional fossil fuels will gradually rise.

Global Development of New Energy Vehicles: China Leads the Way, Electrification and Intelligence Drive Global Trends.

SMM predicts that from 2019 to 2027, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in China will be around 44%, with NEV sales expected to climb to around 22 million units by 2027. In terms of penetration rate, based on 2024 data, the domestic NEV penetration rate was around 48%.

In Europe, SMM expects the CAGR of NEV sales from 2019 to 2027 to be around 33%, with NEV sales expected to reach around 5.5 million units by 2027. The NEV penetration rate in 2024 was around 22%.

In the US, SMM predicts the CAGR of NEV sales from 2019 to 2027 to be around 32%, with NEV sales expected to reach 3 million units by 2027. The NEV penetration rate in 2024 was around 10%.

Behind the rapid development of new energy lies the challenge of "high-quality development."

New Energy Perspectives: Steady Rise in New Installations of Wind, Solar, and ESS Drives Growth in ESS Installation Demand.

SMM expects that from 2024 to 2030, the demand for new installations of PV and wind power will steadily increase, with the CAGR of new PV installations from 2024 to 2030 expected to be around 7%, and the CAGR of new wind power installations from 2024 to 2030 expected to be around 8%.

In this context, it is expected that new ESS installations will also continue to rise from 2024 to 2030, with the CAGR from 2025 to 2030 expected to be around 11%. New ESS installations in 2025 are expected to be around 280 GWh, increasing to around 480 GWh by 2030.

Sustainable Development of the ESS Market (1/2): ESS Safety Incidents and Irrational Price Development.

According to current market developments, the capacity of ESS battery cells is increasing, but in recent years, ESS safety incidents have been frequent, and the prices of ESS battery cells have shown irrational development.

Sustainable Development of the ESS Market (2/2): Comprehensive Attention to Battery Systems, Auxiliary Sources, and Accessories.

Sustainable Development of the PV Market (1/2): Prices Close to Costs, Limited Profit Margins for Enterprises.

From the perspective of PV module cost structure, taking the TOPCon 183mm double-glass module as an example, module prices are close to the industry average cost in 2024, leaving limited profit margins for enterprises.

Sustainable Development of the PV Market (2/2): Stable Raw Material Prices Support New Energy Development, but Geopolitical Risks Remain.

SMM predicts the price trends of key raw materials in the lithium battery and PV industry chains from 2020 to 2030, expecting raw material prices to stabilize from 2025 to 2030, supporting the healthy development of the new energy industry chain.

International Geopolitical Risks

US: Imposes Additional Tariffs on Trading Partners

Deterioration of Global Trade Environment: Trading partners will take countermeasures, exacerbating trade protectionism; Tariff transmission leads to increased costs in the automotive industry chain and for consumers;

South America: Nationalization of Mineral Resources

Risk of Bloc Formation: The "Lithium Triangle" in South America promotes the establishment of a "Lithium OPEC," aiming to form a regional resource alliance, intensifying the segmentation of the global resource market into blocs

Africa: Restrictions on Mineral Resource (Cobalt) Exports

Increased Supply Chain Risk: DRC suspends cobalt product export quotas, some smelters face risks of raw material supply disruptions;

Significant Cost Pressure from Raw Material Price Volatility: In the short term, supply chain disruptions trigger market panic, cobalt prices surge, transmitting to downstream cathode material and ternary battery enterprises, increasing cost pressure on downstream enterprises.

Indonesia: Nickel Resource Tax

Surge in Cost Pressure: Increased domestic trade costs for nickel ore, increased production costs for smelters of NPI and high-grade nickel matte, and transmission to downstream enterprises.

Southeast Asia: PV Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Bill

Increased Fragmentation of Industry Chain: The anti-dumping and countervailing bill will accelerate the fragmentation of the PV industry chain, capacity transfer triggers adjustments in the geo-economic landscape.

Case Study: Impact of US Tariff Policy

How to navigate through these challenges？

Going Global

SMM Solution: What Do We Offer? (1/2)

SMM provides accurate spot price assessment services for domestic and international industry clients, for example, the release of Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore prices can strengthen China's pricing power overseas. SMM aims to become a global price assessment provider that reflects the "Chinese" voice, taking the security of China's supply chain as its mission.

In addition, based on its lithium carbonate prices, SMM offers lithium battery recycling price calculation services, aiming to strengthen China's pricing capability in the recycling industry, supporting the strategic goal of "exploring urban mines and building an internal recycling system," and consolidating the stability of the "urban mine" supply chain.

Meanwhile, SMM provides price assessment services covering the entire lithium battery industry chain, serving industry clients and acting as an external "think tank." By fully leveraging its advantages in data, information, and consulting, SMM is committed to serving the industry and promoting the coordinated development of upstream and downstream sectors.

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