According to Automotive News, a study by French automotive data provider Inovev revealed that the 25% tariff imposed by US President Donald Trump on imported cars could reduce European car exports by 200,000 units.
Inovev stated that the ultimate impact of Trump's tariffs would depend on their duration, but if the tariffs remain at a constant rate of 25% until the end of this year, approximately 200,000 out of the expected 900,000 export units from the EU and the UK could be affected and unable to be exported.
Inovev noted that the US is Europe's largest car export market, surpassing Turkey and China; over the past decade, the number of passenger cars exported from Europe to the US ranged between 700,000 units (during the semiconductor shortage in 2022) and 975,000 units.
Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) showed that European car manufacturers could lose billions of euros in sales due to the tariffs, with the specific amount depending on the direction of the tariff policy. ACEA stated that the EU exported around 750,000 cars to the US last year, with a total value of 38.5 billion euros.
Additionally, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, and Volkswagen Group also produce cars in Mexico for the US market. According to a report by investment bank Jefferies, the tariffs could reduce Stellantis' profits this year by 75%, approximately 7 billion euros.
Inovev suggested that the reduction in European car exports might be due to US consumers boycotting price increases caused by the tariffs or car manufacturers temporarily halting exports in anticipation of a resolution to the tariff issue. Currently, many European car manufacturers have paused shipments to the US or left goods stranded at US ports, including Jaguar Land Rover and Audi.
In the US, major car manufacturers with high sales have not announced price increases, but Ferrari indicated that prices for some models could rise by up to 10%. Mercedes-Benz stated on April 7 that it would not increase the sticker price of its 2025 models in the US. Earlier this month, Mercedes-Benz also mentioned that it might shift the production of another model to its Alabama plant.
Inovev stated that if the tariffs persist beyond 2025, car manufacturers exporting to the US might be forced to alter their production strategies, either by relocating the production of some models to US plants, adding production lines, or building new factories.
Inovev noted that Volkswagen Group is the largest exporter of cars from Europe to the US, accounting for 26% of total European car exports; followed by Mercedes-Benz at 23%; BMW at 19%; Geely (Volvo) at 13%; and Jaguar Land Rover at 12%.
The most popular model exported from Europe to the US is the Mercedes-Benz GLC midsize SUV, with sales exceeding 60,000 units in the US in 2024; followed by the Volvo XC90 and XC60; other popular models include the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, Audi Q3, Land Rover Defender, Porsche Macan, and BMW X1. By model type, 42% of cars exported from Europe to the US are midsize sedans, 28% are large sedans, and 20% are compact sedans.