SMM HRC Daily Review: Overseas Recession Fears Push HRC Futures to Yearly Low

【SMM HRC Daily Review】Overseas Recession Logic Lingers, HRC Futures Hit Yearly Low

Today, HRC futures opened lower, then partially recovered from the decline, with the October contract closing at 3,261, down 3.07%. Spot market transactions were weak. In terms of supply, steel mills have few new HRC maintenance plans, and planned production in April is likely to increase. On the demand side, manufacturing demand in April may remain resilient, but in the short term, affected by tariffs, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. Macro-wise, influenced by Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," most overseas commodities fell during the holiday, leading to a lower domestic opening. Although finished products have independent pricing power, the logic of overseas recession will dominate market sentiment in the short term. Fundamentally, HRC may continue to maintain seasonal destocking in the short term. In summary, overseas macro risks will remain the main theme in the short term, awaiting domestic macro support policies. HRC prices are expected to continue fluctuating downward in the short term.