SMM HRC Daily Review: Overseas Recession Fears Drag HRC Futures to Yearly Low

SMM HRC Daily Review: Overseas Recession Logic Lingers, HRC Futures Hit Yearly Low

Today, HRC futures opened lower but later recovered some of the losses. The October contract closed at 3,261, down 3.07%. Spot market transactions were weak. In terms of supply, steel mills currently have few new maintenance plans for HRC, and planned production is likely to increase in April. On the demand side, manufacturing demand in April may remain resilient, but in the short term, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs due to tariff impacts. Macro-wise, influenced by Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," most overseas commodities fell during the holiday, leading to a lower domestic market opening. Although finished products have independent pricing power, the overseas recession logic will likely dominate market sentiment in the short term. Fundamentally, HRC may continue to experience seasonal destocking in the near term. In summary, overseas macro risks will remain the main theme in the short term, awaiting domestic macro support policies. HRC prices are expected to continue fluctuating downward in the near term.