SMM HRC Weekly: Pre-Holiday Restocking Lags, Social Inventory Decline Narrows

【SMM HRC Weekly Balance & Social Inventory Review】Pre-Holiday Restocking Demand Falls Short of Expectations, Social Inventory Reduction Narrows

This week, the SMM statistics showed that the social inventory of HRC in 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) was 4.0818 million mt, down 98,800 mt WoW, a decrease of 2.36% WoW, and down 6.09% YoY. The national social inventory continued to decline this week, with the rate of decrease narrowing. By region, the decline in the south China market was significantly higher than that in the east China and north China markets, while the central China and north-east China regions saw a slight inventory buildup.

This week, the impact of maintenance continued to weaken, and HRC supply increased slightly. Futures fluctuated downward, and although it was before the Qingming Festival, the weak market sentiment led to poor trading activity. Meanwhile, steel mills actively shipped products, and the decline in social inventory narrowed. Looking ahead, in the short term, there are relatively fewer rolling lines under maintenance or planned for maintenance, and supply pressure is expected to rebound. Domestic end-use demand may maintain resilience in April, but export risks should be monitored, and resource reflux should be approached with caution. It is expected that national social inventory will continue to decrease in the short term.