SMM April 1 News:
Metal Market:
As of the daytime close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE lead was flat at 17,410 yuan/mt, while SHFE nickel led the decline with a 0.12% drop. SHFE tin and SHFE zinc both rose over 0.4%, with SHFE zinc up 0.43% and SHFE tin up 0.47%. Alumina's main contract fell 0.94%, hitting a low of 2,921 yuan/mt during the session, the lowest since December 2023.
Additionally, lithium carbonate's main contract rose 0.49%, while silicon metal's main contract fell 0.31%. Polysilicon's main contract rose 0.28%, and the main contract for European container shipping fell 0.55%.
In the overseas market, as of 15:04, only LME tin fell, down 0.05%. LME nickel rose 1.71%, and LME copper rose 0.59%. The fluctuations in other metals were relatively small.
In the ferrous metals series, most products rose, with only rebar falling, down 0.09%. Iron ore rose 1.86%, while stainless steel and HRC rose within 1%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose 0.65%, and coke rose 3.75%.
In the precious metals sector, as of 15:04, COMEX gold rose 0.38%, hitting a high of $3,177/oz during the session, continuing to set new historical records. COMEX silver rose 0.55%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.72%, hitting a high of 739.8 yuan/g during the session, marking six consecutive gains and setting a new historical high.
As of 15:04 today's market
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Macro Front
Domestic:
【National Consumer Trade-in Promotion Video Conference Held in Beijing】 To summarize the progress of the consumer trade-in work in Q1 2025 and deploy the next key tasks, the National Consumer Trade-in Promotion Video Conference was held in Beijing on March 28. Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of Commerce, attended and delivered a speech. The meeting emphasized the need to strengthen overall coordination, accelerate work progress, and ensure the implementation of various tasks; enhance digital empowerment, promote the widespread use of smart terminal consumer goods, and exchange for new quality productive forces; deepen reform and innovation, work diligently, and fully resolve various bottlenecks that constrain policy effectiveness; intensify publicity and promotion, create a strong atmosphere, and stimulate consumer enthusiasm; focus on risk prevention, build a solid regulatory defense line, ensure the proper use of funds, and promote greater effectiveness of consumer trade-in, continuously strengthening the fundamental role of consumption in economic growth.
【Caixin China Manufacturing PMI Rose to 51.2 in March, the Highest in Four Months】 The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for March, released today, recorded 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from February, the highest since December 2024, indicating that manufacturing production and business activities continued to expand at a faster pace.
US Dollar:
As of 15:04, the US dollar index rose 0.03%. New York Fed President Williams said on Monday that monetary policy is "in a good place" to handle what the economy may face this year, while acknowledging that the risk of inflation heating up again still exists; the full impact of tariffs may gradually manifest over a long period; data needs to be monitored to measure the impact of tariffs. Richmond Fed President Barkin said on Monday that the timing of any interest rate cuts will depend on inflation, and while he is concerned that tariffs will push up prices, he is also worried that higher tariffs will harm the job market. IMF Managing Director Georgieva said on Monday that the comprehensive tariffs pushed by the US are creating significant uncertainty and undermining confidence, but are unlikely to trigger a recession in the short term.
This week's US data includes job openings to be released later, the ADP employment report on Wednesday, and the non-farm payroll report on Friday, which may provide insights into the Fed's rate cut trajectory. (Wenhua Comprehensive)
Data:
Today, the US March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI, US February JOLTs Job Openings, Japan February Unemployment Rate, Japan Q1 BOJ Tankan Large Manufacturing Index, Japan Q1 BOJ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook, Japan Q1 BOJ Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index, Japan Q1 BOJ Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook, Eurozone March Core Harmonized CPI YoY - Unadjusted Preliminary, Eurozone February Unemployment Rate, France March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, Germany March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, Eurozone March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, UK March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, Mexico March SPGI Manufacturing PMI, Brazil March SPGI Manufacturing PMI, Australia ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the Week Ending March 30, Australia April Cash Rate, and other data will be released.
Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. ECB President Lagarde will speak at the AI Conference.
It should be noted that on the eve of the Qingming Festival holiday on April 3, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE will have no night session. On April 4, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Taiwan Stock Exchange, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges, and domestic futures exchanges will be closed for one day. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for one day due to the Qingming Festival, and northbound and southbound trading will be suspended.
Crude Oil:
As of 15:04, oil prices in both markets rose, with US oil up 0.34% and Brent oil up 0.29%. The outlook for Russian and Iranian crude oil supply provided support, but concerns about the impact of trade conflicts on global economic growth limited gains. IG market analyst Yeap Jun Rong said, "Recent risks tend to be upward, as the US threat to impose secondary tariffs on Russian and Iranian oil buyers has made market participants joke about the risk of tightening oil supply." However, the broader theme still revolves around concerns about the upcoming tariffs dragging down global demand, as well as the prospect of OPEC+ and the US increasing supply, Yeap said.
A survey shows that oil prices will continue to face pressure in 2025, as US tariffs and slowing economic growth in countries like India weigh on demand, while OPEC+ advances its production increase plan. Slowing global economic growth will curb fuel demand, potentially offsetting the impact of reduced supply caused by US tariffs.
The US tariff threat initially boosted oil prices on Monday, but traders said they believed the warning of tariffs on Russia was at least a bluff. ING commodity strategists said on Tuesday, "For now, it seems to be just a threat to Russia and Iran. However, if it becomes a reality, given the huge oil exports of both countries, it will bring significant upside risks to the market."
Before the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its official weekly inventory data on Wednesday, the market will focus on the weekly inventory data released by the US industry group API on Tuesday. API's weekly inventory report will be released at 4:30 on Wednesday, and EIA will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday. (Wenhua Comprehensive)
SMM Daily Review
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