SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary: Spot Price of Refined Cobalt Remains Stable, Market Speculative Sentiment Slightly Cools Down

Refined Cobalt:

Spot prices of refined cobalt remained stable this week. Supply side, smelters maintained a neutral sentiment on continuous shipments, while overseas shipments pulled back slightly. Demand side, market inquiries and purchases remained weak, and speculative sentiment cooled slightly. In the short term, supply and demand are expected to remain stable, and spot prices of refined cobalt are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend.

Intermediate Products:

Spot prices of cobalt intermediate products held steady this week. Supply side, logistics channels from South Africa to Chinese ports remained smooth, but the supply tightening pressure caused by the suspension of cobalt exports from the DRC continued to release. Upstream producers' spot quotations remained high, and market liquidity remained tight. The price spread between upstream and downstream psychological expectations remained wide, and market transactions showed no improvement.

Cobalt Sulphate:

Spot prices of cobalt sulphate remained unchanged this week. Supply side, upstream salt producers' quotations were basically flat compared to last week, and old inventory is still being digested. Downstream companies' concentrated procurement has ended, and inquiries and purchases remained weak. The expected price spread still exists, and market liquidity showed no improvement. In the short term, the market is expected to continue a "weak balance" fluctuating trend, and spot prices are likely to fluctuate.

Cobalt Chloride:

At the beginning of the week, cobalt chloride prices fluctuated upward. Supply side, the market gradually returned to rationality, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and cobalt chloride producers' shipment attitudes loosened. Demand side, the procurement peak of major Co3O4 manufacturers has passed, and the number of inquiries decreased, with actual transactions being limited. Additionally, downstream Co3O4 manufacturers still resisted high-priced cobalt salts, and market activity decreased. These factors may lead to a slight pullback in cobalt chloride prices.

Cobalt Salt (Co3O4):

At the beginning of the week, Co3O4 prices remained stable. Supply side, most smelters' quotations stabilized, and the market gradually returned to rationality. Demand side, most manufacturers had completed their procurement earlier, so new orders this week were limited. Market acceptance of high prices decreased, activity weakened, and the market entered a buffer period. In the short term, Co3O4 prices are expected to remain at relatively high levels, but due to weak purchase willingness and some resistance from downstream LCO manufacturers, prices may pull back slightly this week.

Cobalt Powder and Others:

This week, cobalt powder market transactions were mainly small spot orders, lacking support from large orders. Alloy demand showed no significant improvement, and cobalt powder prices remained high. Downstream purchasers remained cautious about the market outlook and were reluctant to increase inventory, mostly maintaining a purchasing-as-needed strategy.

Ternary Cathode Precursor:

This week, the ternary cathode precursor market performed steadily, with prices of 5-series for consumer electronics, 6-series for consumer electronics, and 8-series for NEV remaining stable. Prices of nickel sulphate, manganese sulphate, and cobalt sulphate remained stable overall, with no significant fluctuations. Demand side, affected by the sharp rise in raw material prices in March, some cathode material manufacturers may sign small orders to stockpile in advance, but overall market sentiment remained cautious, with companies closely monitoring international trade policies and macro developments. Supply of precursors for power batteries still mainly relied on previously signed long-term contracts, while precursors for consumer electronics, being more price-sensitive, were mainly traded in spot orders. Supply side, rising raw material prices and long-term losses strengthened precursor manufacturers' sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and transaction prices remained firm. Long-term contract execution remained stable, while spot pricing was mainly negotiated based on nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate prices. Looking ahead this week, market sentiment and international trade policies may cause slight fluctuations in raw material prices, and precursor prices are expected to remain relatively firm overall, with a slight fluctuating trend.

Ternary Cathode Material:

This week, ternary cathode material prices showed a slight fluctuating trend. In terms of raw material costs, prices of nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate remained stable, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices pulled back slightly. Overall supply still mainly relied on previously signed long-term contracts, with the discount coefficient unchanged, and price increases mainly reflected in spot quotations. Additionally, as the procurement order coefficient between material manufacturers and upstream precursor suppliers increased, ternary cathode material production costs remained high, and prices remained relatively firm. In terms of production and orders, affected by the sharp rise in raw material prices in March, some battery cell manufacturers chose to place orders in advance and stockpile in March to meet subsequent production needs. Meanwhile, overseas demand for ternary cathode materials rebounded recently, and some material manufacturers' overseas tolling orders increased, driving overall order conditions to improve, with April production schedules expected to rise steadily. In the short term, ternary cathode material prices are expected to remain firm, fluctuating with raw material prices.

LCO:

This week, LCO prices pulled back slightly. As of March 27, mainstream quotations for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V LCO were 205,000 yuan/mt, 209,000 yuan/mt, and 220,000 yuan/mt, respectively. Earlier, the sharp rise in upstream raw material Co3O4 prices drove LCO manufacturers' sentiment to stand firm on quotes, but recently, downstream's ability to accept high-priced raw materials was insufficient, and transactions were weak. Co3O4 prices pulled back slightly, and LCO prices followed suit. Supply side, some small and medium-sized LCO enterprises suspended order-taking or only executed previous long-term contracts due to insufficient raw material inventory, while only top-tier enterprises maintained normal production with stable supply chains. In the short term, LCO prices still have upward support, but the increase may narrow further, mainly because the DRC will evaluate the effect of the export ban in April. If the ban is extended or the quota policy is adjusted, raw material shortages may intensify.

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News:

【Dazhong Mining: Lithium Ore Resources Development and Utilization Plan for Jijiaoshan Mining Area Tongtianmiao Section Passes Expert Review】 Dazhong Mining announced that recently, the "Lithium Ore Resources Development and Utilization Plan for Tongtianmiao Section of Jijiaoshan Mining Area in Linwu County, Hunan Province" submitted by its wholly-owned subsidiary Chenzhou Chengtai Mining Investment Co., Ltd. passed the expert review organized by the Strategic Research Center for Oil and Gas Resources of the Ministry of Natural Resources. As of August 31, 2024, the lithium ore reserves in the Tongtianmiao Section of Jijiaoshan Mining Area in Linwu County were 489.872 million mt, with Li2O mineral reserves of 1.3135 million mt, equivalent to 3.2443 million mt of LCE, showing significant resource advantages. The reviewed plan adopts a mining method of open-pit mining first, followed by underground mining, with an open-pit mining scale of 20 million mt/year and an underground mining scale of 8 million mt/year, ranking among the top domestic lithium mining companies. The company is accelerating the preparation of the "Mine Geological Environment Protection and Land Reclamation Plan" for the Tongtianmiao Section of Jijiaoshan Mining Area, after which it will apply for a mining license.
【MIIT Vice Minister Xin Guobin: Comprehensive Rectification of Cut-Throat Competition in the Automotive Industry】 MIIT Vice Minister Xin Guobin stated at the China EV100 Forum (2025) that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will: First, further strengthen technological breakthroughs. Second, accelerate the industrialisation of autonomous driving. Third, actively stabilize and expand automotive consumption. Formulate a new round of work plans for stable growth in the automotive industry, implement policies for car trade-ins, new energy city buses, and power battery updates, and continue to carry out new energy vehicle rural promotion activities and pilot projects to improve charging and swapping facilities in counties. Fourth, promote digital transformation across the entire industry chain. Promote the application of AI in automotive R&D, production, and operation management, and develop and promote evaluation standards for digital transformation service providers in the automotive industry. Fifth, further deepen industry management reforms. Comprehensively rectify cut-throat competition, carry out special law enforcement actions against online unfair competition, and create a good market environment. (Cailian Press)
【CPCA's Cui Dongshu: NEV Wholesale Sales Expected to Reach 15.7 Million Units, Up 28% YoY】 At the China EV100 Forum 2025, CPCA Secretary General Cui Dongshu predicted that retail sales of passenger vehicles in 2025 will increase by 2% YoY, reaching 23.3 million units. Domestic sales will reach 23 million units, up 3% YoY. NEV wholesale sales are expected to reach 15.7 million units, up 28% YoY.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Cong Wang 021-51666838

Rui Ma 021-51595780

Ziya Lin 86-2151666902

Disheng Feng 021-51666714

Yanlin Lyu 021-20707875

Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711

Zihan Wang 021-51666914

Jie Wang 021-51595902

He Zhang 021-20707850

Haohan Zhang 021-51666752

Yang Xu 021-51666760

Bolin Chen 021-51666836

Mengqi Xu 021-20707868