DRC's Wang Qing Forecasts 17 Million NEV Sales in 2025, Highlights Vehicle Trade-in Policy Impact

【Wang Qing from DRC: NEV sales expected to hit 17 million this year】On March 30, 2025, at the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum 2025, Wang Qing, Deputy Director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, stated that the substitution effect of new energy vehicles (NEVs) on fuel vehicles remains dominant. In 2024, the domestic substitution effect reached approximately 98%. It is projected that NEV sales will reach 17 million units in 2025, with the domestic market share of new energy passenger vehicles approaching 58%. Overall, under the condition of no new disruptive factors, China's automobile sales in 2025 are expected to grow by approximately 3%-4%.

Additionally, Wang Qing emphasized that the vehicle trade-in policy continues to demonstrate significant effects. Covering around 25 million passenger vehicles, this policy is expected to stimulate market potential in lower-tier cities and central-western regions, driving over 2 million additional units in scrappage and replacement demand. However, no evident "pre-consumption effect" is anticipated this year. Since 2020, approximately 2.7 million units of pent-up demand have accumulated in the market, with 500,000 to 1 million units remaining to be released in 2025. The spillover effects of this demand into 2026 will require further observation.