SMM HRC Daily: Ferrous Metals Decline, HRC Spot Market Sluggish Amid Manufacturing Rebound

【SMM HRC Daily Review】Ferrous Metals Series Fluctuate Downward, Spot Market for HRC Remains Sluggish Throughout the Day

HRC futures fluctuated downward today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,342 yuan/mt, down 0.86% for the day. Spot market transactions were moderate. On the news front, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the manufacturing PMI for March stood at 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating a continued rebound in manufacturing activity. According to the steel industry PMI surveyed and released by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, the steel PMI for March was 46%, up 0.9 percentage points MoM, marking the second consecutive month of MoM growth. During the day, the most-traded coking coal contract fell below the 1,000.0 yuan/mt mark, hitting its lowest level since October 2016. From a fundamental perspective, as we enter April, the impact of previous maintenance is expected to gradually weaken, leaving room for a rebound in HRC production. Demand side, the peak season demand from March to April has limited further upside potential, and the market may experience high volatility before mid-month. With a relatively small short-term imbalance, attention should be paid to the pace of production recovery and inventory levels. Before the HRC imbalance becomes apparent, HRC prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound in a weak trend.