Futures market: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $9,794/mt, with the highest price reaching $9,887.0/mt and the lowest price dropping to $9,773.0/mt. The latest price was reported at $9,783.5/mt, down by $63.0, a decrease of 0.64%. The trading volume was 20,138, and the open interest reached 309,324. The overall trend showed an initial fluctuation and rise, followed by a pullback and downward movement, ultimately closing lower. Last Friday night, the SHFE copper 2505 contract opened at 80,660 yuan/mt, with the highest price reaching 81,190 yuan/mt and the lowest price dropping to 80,310 yuan/mt. The latest price was reported at 80,420 yuan/mt, down by 270 yuan, a decrease of 0.33%. The trading volume was 64,252, and the open interest reached 208,816. The overall trend showed an initial rise, followed by a fluctuating downward movement.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News: (1) Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US economic recession and the expected tariff rates.
(2) The US February core PCE price index year-on-year and month-on-month rates both exceeded market expectations. Traders continued to bet on two interest rate cuts by the US Fed this year, with the first cut expected in July.
Spot: (1) Shanghai: On March 28, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2504 contract were reported at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 5 yuan/mt, up by 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 28, downstream orders significantly increased, driving improved sentiment for weekend stockpiling. Although overall finished product inventories of some processing enterprises remained high, this round of copper price pullback still provided a bottom support for subsequent production. Spot premiums are expected to slightly recover this week after returning to transactions with invoices dated this month.
(2) Guangdong: On March 28, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 90 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 60 yuan/mt, down by 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, although copper prices fell, downstream buyers were still unwilling to restock, forcing suppliers to lower premiums for sales, resulting in poor overall trading.
(3) Imported copper: On March 28, warrant prices were reported at $70-76/mt, QP April, with the average price down by $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were reported at $96-106/mt, QP April, with the average price down by $4/mt from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was reported at $35-45/mt, QP April, with the average price down by $5/mt from the previous trading day, with reference to cargoes arriving in early to mid-April. On March 28, the SHFE/LME price ratio against the SHFE copper 2504 contract was around -600 yuan/mt, with LME copper 3M-Apr at C$23.69/mt, and the spread between April and May date swap fees around C$18.45/mt. On March 28, market offers continued to pull back, with increased offers for early April and reduced inquiries. Offers for mid-April arrival EQ were reported at $40-45/5QP, warrant offers were lowered to $70-75, and buyer purchase willingness was low. Registered B/L offers for early April were reported at $110/4QP, with a small amount of low-price transactions heard. Overall, market sentiment turned cold, and some suppliers began actively selling.
(4) Inventory: On March 28, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 2,350 mt to 212,925 mt; on March 28, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 2,175 mt to 135,731 mt.
Price: Macro-wise, the US plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on countries responsible for most of its trade deficit on April 2, while the already announced 25% auto tariffs will take effect on April 3. The upcoming comprehensive reciprocal tariffs in the US have worsened global economic growth prospects. Meanwhile, the market previously expected the US copper 232 investigation to last until Q3, but the investigation period has been shortened. Under the risk of early tariffs, cross-market arbitrage opportunities have narrowed, putting pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, copper prices have continued to fall. Although some customers are still waiting for prices below 80,000, downstream orders have significantly increased under the falling copper prices. Spot premiums are expected to slightly recover this week. Overall, as the CSPT meeting and the US announcement of comprehensive reciprocal tariffs approach, although the US dollar index has fallen, market unease has increased. If today's CSPT meeting does not meet market expectations, copper prices may continue to face pressure.
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[The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
