[SMM Analysis] From March 1 to 23, China's passenger car retail sales reached ​1.154 million units, marking a ​25% increase compared to the same period last month

According to the latest weekly data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), the average daily retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 55,000 units during the third week of March 2025 (March 17-23), representing year-on-year growth of 8% and month-on-month growth of 11%. While the growth rate has moderated compared to the previous two weeks, it continues the post-holiday market's gradual recovery trend. Cumulative data shows total retail sales of 1.154 million units from March 1-23, up 18% year-on-year and 25% month-on-month, demonstrating sustained market resilience.

Key Market Drivers
Policy measures remain the primary market driver. The central and local governments' "Dual New" policies (promoting new energy vehicles and trade-in programs) have created synergistic effects, with the early implementation of trade-in subsidies particularly stimulating demand from both corporate fleets and individual consumers. Meanwhile, persistently low prices of key raw materials like lithium carbonate have enabled automakers to optimize cost structures for NEVs, accelerating product upgrades. NEV retail sales reached 622,000 units during March 1-23, growing 30% year-on-year, with penetration rate rebounding to 54.1% - solidifying its position as the main growth engine.

Competitive Landscape
Automakers' strategies show significant divergence. Leading manufacturers (controlling over 80% market share) have set March retail targets 8.5% higher year-on-year, primarily maintaining competitiveness through increased discounts. The industry-wide average discount rate stabilized at 23.4% mid-month, essentially unchanged from late February. However, some brands have adopted diversified promotional strategies including limited-time offers and subsidized financing to capture market share. Intensive new model launches have also boosted market activity, with average daily wholesale volume reaching 64,000 units in the third week (up 1% year-on-year), reflecting manufacturers' confidence in future demand.

Market Outlook
For the fourth week (March 24-31), daily retail sales are projected at 79,800 units. While this would represent a 10.1% year-on-year decline, the decrease is primarily attributable to the high base effect from the same period last year. For the full month, CPCA maintains its forecast of 1.85 million units in passenger vehicle retail sales, reflecting 9.1% year-on-year growth and over 30% month-on-month increase. This performance not only benefits from policy support and natural post-holiday demand recovery but also underscores the automotive industry's role as a resilient pillar of the economy.

SMM New Energy Industry Research Department

Cong Wang 021-51666838

Xiaodan Yu 021-20707870

Rui Ma 021-51595780

Disheng Feng 021-51666714

Yujun Liu 021-20707895

Yanlin Lü 021-20707875

Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711

Haohan Zhang 021-51666752

Zihan Wang 021-51666914

Xiaoxuan Ren 021-20707866

Jie Wang 021-51595902

Yang Xu 021-51666760

Boling Chen 021-51666836