Myanmar Ore Resumes Imports: What Impact on the Rare Earth Market? [SMM Commentary]

SMM March 28 News: On March 26, the Kachin State government announced that the legally mined and long-stored rare earths from the eastern province mining area would officially be released starting March 27, 2025. Previously, the control of the mining area by the Kachin Independence Army in Myanmar had led to a halt in rare earth mining and border closures, severely affecting the supply of medium-heavy rare earths. The Kachin State government's legal release of the stored rare earths may alleviate the tight market supply in the short term.

Since H2 2024, due to supply disruptions in Myanmar, rare earth prices have seen a significant increase. Following this news, some industry players began actively offloading goods in the market, leading to a downward trend in the prices of mainstream rare earth products. According to the import data for the entire year of 2024, 70% of China's imports of unlisted rare earth oxides came from Myanmar. The resumption of imports is expected to stabilize the supply of rare earth ore. However, considering the stricter control of smelting and separation indicators under the new rare earth regulations, the supply of rare earth oxides in the market may not be affected.

Overall, the Kachin State government's decision may alleviate the tight supply in the rare earth market and curb rapid price increases in the short term. However, in the long term, rare earth prices will still be influenced by the growing demand in the end-use sector, policy regulations, and geopolitical risks.

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