★Macro★
01 ★★★Global Trade Friction Measures Involved Amount Up 8.3% YoY in January
On the morning of March 28, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) held its monthly press conference for March, releasing the global trade friction index for January 2024 and 2025. Data shows that the amount involved in global trade friction measures in January 2025 increased by 8.3% YoY. From the composite index perspective, the global trade friction index for January was 106, with the amount involved in global trade friction measures up 8.3% YoY and 1.8% MoM. From the industry index perspective, the electronics industry led the trade friction index in January. CCPIT spokesperson Yang Fan stated that in January this year, the US, Japan, and India were once again the top three countries in the global trade friction index.
02 ★★ Local Government Debt Balance Reached 48,013.1 Billion Yuan by the End of January
On March 28, the Ministry of Finance announced the issuance and balance of local government bonds for January 2025: by the end of January 2025, the total local government debt balance nationwide was 48,013.1 billion yuan. This includes 16,806.9 billion yuan in general debt and 31,206.2 billion yuan in special debt; 47,852.7 billion yuan in government bonds and 160.4 billion yuan in non-government bond forms of government debt.
03 ★★ New Local Government Bonds Issued Nationwide Reached 801.9 Billion Yuan from January to February
The Ministry of Finance released the issuance and balance of local government bonds for February 2025. From January to February 2025, the issuance of new local government bonds nationwide reached 801.9 billion yuan, including 205.1 billion yuan in general bonds and 596.8 billion yuan in special bonds. The issuance of refinancing bonds nationwide was 1,061.4 billion yuan, including 30.4 billion yuan in general bonds and 1,031 billion yuan in special bonds. The total issuance of local government bonds nationwide was 1,863.3 billion yuan, including 235.5 billion yuan in general bonds and 1,627.8 billion yuan in special bonds.
04 ★★ Central Bank Achieved a Net Withdrawal of 14.5 Billion Yuan Today
The central bank conducted 785 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with a bid volume of 785 billion yuan, a winning volume of 785 billion yuan, and an operation rate of 1.50%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 930 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 14.5 billion yuan.
★Industry and Downstream★
01 ★★★ 【SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report】Tariff War Continues to Escalate, Steel Prices Expected to Fluctuate Rangebound Next Week
This week, the ferrous metals series showed a hesitant trend, with the overall average price slightly increasing. On the news front, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, while attending the "China Development Forum 2025 Annual Meeting," stated that China is prepared for potential "external unexpected shocks" and will introduce new incremental policies if necessary to ensure the stable operation of the Chinese economy. On the 22nd, the 2025 High-Quality Development Conference for the Steel Industry, guided by the China Iron and Steel Association and hosted by the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, was held in Beijing. Jiang Wei, in his speech at the conference, suggested effectively closing the entry for new capacity. Steel enterprises in some regions of China indicated that they might appropriately control crude steel production in the near future.
02 ★★ Guangzhou Real Estate Market Stabilized in Q1
According to the latest data released by the Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau on March 27, in Q1 this year, the online signing area of first-hand commercial properties in Guangzhou was 2.1856 million m², up 17.7% YoY; the transaction registration area of second-hand commercial properties was 2.8258 million m², up 27.6% YoY.
Among them, the online signing area of first-hand residential properties in Guangzhou in Q1 was 1.7267 million m², up 36.8% YoY, with all 11 districts in Guangzhou showing a YoY increase of over 10%; the transaction registration area of second-hand residential properties was 2.4227 million m², up 26.2% YoY, with all 11 districts in Guangzhou achieving positive YoY growth. The Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau stated that in Q1 this year, the stabilization trend of the Guangzhou real estate market has been further consolidated, with new commercial property transactions maintaining positive growth, housing prices continuing to bottom out and stabilize, and the destocking cycle for first-hand residential properties further shortened.
03 ★★ High-Premium Land Parcels Frequently Appear in Core Cities
On March 27, a residential land parcel in Chengdu was sold at a floor price exceeding 40,000 yuan/m², with 213 rounds of bidding and a premium rate of 106%. Just half a month ago, the "DW" floor price had just broken 30,000 yuan/m², with a premium rate of 70.4%. Apart from Chengdu, since March, Beijing, Hangzhou, and other cities have also seen record-high land auction floor prices.
04 ★★ Greentown Acquired Land in Hangzhou and Hefei for 1.8 Billion Yuan
Greentown acquired land in Hangzhou and Hefei this morning, involving approximately 1.8 billion yuan. Greentown won the Siba Qibao Unit JG1402-21 (2) plot (Qian'er plot in Shangcheng District) for 1.533 billion yuan, with a floor price of 47,888 yuan/m² and a premium rate of 22.35%. Nearby is the Greentown Yulan Yuehua project, currently selling at 67,500 yuan/m². The project was acquired by Greentown in October 2024, with a floor price of 50,717 yuan/m², and was the last price-limited plot in Qian'er. The project sold out on its first day of sales on March 25. Subsequently, Greentown won the Yaohai Highland Park plot in Hefei's Eastern New Center for 282 million yuan, with a floor price of approximately 13,400 yuan/m².
★Other Hot Topics★
⭕【Ten Departments: Solidly Promote a New Round of Mineral Exploration Breakthrough Strategy】The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and nine other departments issued the "High-Quality Development Implementation Plan for the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)." The plan mentions accelerating the increase in domestic bauxite resource reserves and production. Solidly promote a new round of mineral exploration breakthrough strategy, strengthen the investigation and exploration of bauxite resources in key domestic metallogenic belts, and add a batch of bauxite resources available for development.
⭕【South Africa Launches Tariff Review on Imported Steel】On March 19, the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC), responsible for tariff reviews, trade remedies, and import and export controls, announced a tariff review on imported steel. The announcement shows that this review is to address issues such as global steel industry overcapacity and the impact of imported products on the market, ensuring the sustainable development of South Africa's steel industry chain and promoting South Africa's economic growth. ITAC plans to establish an import monitoring system and increase import tariffs on certain steel products. ITAC is soliciting public comments on the proposed measures, calling on stakeholders to submit relevant comments within four weeks from the date of the announcement.
⭕【Nanjing Iron & Steel Holds 2024 Annual Performance Briefing】On March 26, Nanjing Iron & Steel held its 2024 annual performance briefing. Chairman Huang Yixin, President Zhu Ruirong, Independent Director Pan Jun, Chief Accountant Mei Jiaxiu, and Board Secretary Tang Rui attended the meeting, providing investors with a comprehensive and detailed explanation and introduction. In 2024, Nanjing Iron & Steel achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 2.261 billion yuan, up 6.37% YoY. In Q4 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 507 million yuan, up 10.24% YoY. Chairman Huang Yixin stated that in recent years, the outstanding resilience of Nanjing Iron & Steel's operations is backed by the new advantages forged by the integration of "precision and specialty" in its main business, "new quality" in its industry, and the "high, intelligent, and green" development.
⭕【Bensteel Group Achieves Excellent Crude Steel Production in February】In February, Bensteel Group anchored its production and operation goals, scientifically coordinated, and implemented precise measures, optimizing production organization and releasing efficient capacity, with crude steel production exceeding the plan by 17,000 mt. Sheets & Plates Company, guided by lean management, scientifically scheduled production and optimized furnace and machine matching, improving production line operation rates by shortening converter smelting cycles and increasing ladle turnover efficiency. At the same time, it strengthened production scheduling management, ensuring efficient and smooth production processes for converters, refining, and continuous casting. With refined equipment management as the main line, it focused on detailed and solid equipment foundation management, implemented the "bi-weekly inspection" system for converters and casters, improved the accuracy of equipment maintenance models, achieved dynamic control of offline and online equipment, and ensured the stable operation of production equipment. In February, Sheets & Plates Company broke the daily average production record for converter steel.
