China's Unwrought Aluminum Alloy Imports Slightly Declined YoY in the First Two Months of 2025 [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, unwrought aluminum alloy imports in January 2025 were 99,700 mt, down 4.9% YoY and down 5.6% MoM. In February, unwrought aluminum alloy imports were 91,900 mt, up 3.6% YoY and down 7.8% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to February 2025 were 191,500 mt, down 1.0% YoY.

Unwrought aluminum alloy exports in January 2025 were 18,100 mt, down 12.9% YoY and down 14.6% MoM. In February, unwrought aluminum alloy exports were 17,500 mt, down 13.1% YoY and down 3.5% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to February 2025 were 35,600 mt, down 13.0% YoY.

From the perspective of import sources, the top five countries for China's unwrought aluminum alloy imports from January to February 2025 were Malaysia (84,800 mt), Russia (35,300 mt), Thailand (24,900 mt), South Korea (7,300 mt), and Indonesia (5,000 mt), accounting for 44%, 18%, 13%, 4%, and 3% respectively, with the remaining countries accounting for less than 20% of the total imports.

Export side, Japan remained the largest export destination for domestic aluminum alloy ingots in the first two months of 2025, accounting for nearly 50%, followed by Mexico and South Korea. The trade mode was mainly processing trade, accounting for 72%.

Overall, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy ingots in January and February 2025 both pulled back to below 100,000 mt, with the total volume for the two months showing a slight decline YoY. After mid-November last year, domestic aluminum prices entered a continuous downward trend, and ADC12 prices followed suit. Meanwhile, overseas prices experienced relatively small fluctuations, and the RMB exchange rate continued to weaken. This series of factors continuously compressed the profit margin for importing ADC12, quickly turning the previously profitable situation into a loss, which persisted until mid-January. Additionally, during the Chinese New Year holiday, market activity decreased, leading to reduced demand. The combination of these unfavourable factors resulted in monthly imports dropping below 100,000 mt in January and February. Imports in March are expected to rebound slightly to above 100,000 mt, with a potential pullback after April.