The positive factors on the supply side have been exhausted, and the lead price trend may be affected by factors such as tariffs and the off-season. [SMM Lead Market Weekly Forecast]

게시됨: Mar 28, 2025 17:00

저장

SMM March 28 News: Next week, due to the Qingming Festival holiday, the SHFE will not conduct night session trading on April 3, and the market will be closed on April 4. Key macroeconomic data to watch include China's March official manufacturing PMI, the US March ISM manufacturing PMI, and the US March ADP employment (10,000). Additionally, a major event to focus on is the US President Trump's plan to implement reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

On the LME lead front, the US tariff hike factor guided market trading direction, while the US dollar index remained high and consolidated. LME lead experienced a roller-coaster ride during the week. Next week, the US tariff developments will remain the main trading logic. Furthermore, we need to pay attention to the increase in LME lead cancelled warrants and be alert to the possibility of lead inventory transfers. LME lead may maintain considerable fluctuations. It is expected that LME lead will trade between $2,015-2,100/mt next week.

Domestically, for SHFE lead, due to the Qingming holiday, there will be only four trading days. As the previous supply-side tightening benefits have been exhausted, market concerns about the traditional consumption off-season have intensified. Some downstream enterprises plan to take holidays during the Qingming Festival, leading to an expected increase in lead ingot inventory buildup. The price center of lead may shift downward. Meanwhile, the high demand for scrap from secondary lead enterprises makes scrap battery prices more likely to rise than fall, and the cost support for secondary lead will continue to play a role. It is expected that the most-traded SHFE lead contract will trade between 17,300-17,700 yuan/mt next week.

Spot price forecast: 17,100-17,400 yuan/mt. The lead-acid battery market will enter the traditional off-season from March to April. Downstream enterprises will basically produce based on sales, especially being cautious about high-priced lead purchases. Coupled with the expected Qingming Festival holiday, it may drag down lead consumption. On the supply side, there are both increases and decreases. Maintenance at primary lead smelters will bring some reductions, while secondary lead production resumes, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation in April. Spot market supply will tend to be loose, with reduced spot premium transactions for primary lead. Secondary lead will need to focus on cost factors.

데이터 출처 설명: 공개 정보를 제외한 모든 데이터는 SMM이 공개 정보, 시장 커뮤니케이션 및 SMM 내부 데이터베이스 모델을 기반으로 가공한 것입니다. 본 자료는 참고용이며 의사결정 권고를 구성하지 않습니다.

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