【SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Minutes】Cobalt Powder Prices Remain High, Downstream Maintains Purchasing as Needed Strategy

Refined Cobalt:

The spot price of refined cobalt rose slightly this week. Supply side, smelters continued to stand firm on quotes. Demand side, downstream producers have largely completed their monthly procurement, and market inquiries and buying remain relatively weak, but traders' enthusiasm for transactions increased WoW. In the short term, supply and demand in the market are unlikely to change, and the spot price of refined cobalt is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

Intermediate Products:

The spot price of cobalt intermediate products rose slightly this week. Supply side, the logistics channel from South Africa to Chinese ports remains smooth, but the pressure from supply tightening caused by the suspension of cobalt exports from the DRC continues to be released. Upstream producers' spot order quotes remain high, and the supply of available cargo in the market is still insufficient. Downstream producers maintain rigid inquiries, and the price spread imbalance has made it difficult to increase trading volume. Next week, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products is expected to fluctuate upward.

Cobalt Sulphate:

The spot price of cobalt sulphate rose slightly this week. Supply side, upstream salt producers' quotes were basically flat WoW and continued to stand firm on quotes, with some salt producers releasing small batches of cargo. Downstream enterprises' concentrated procurement has come to an end, and inquiries and buying are currently weak. The expected transaction price spread still exists, and market liquidity has not improved significantly. In the short term, the market is expected to continue a "weak balance" fluctuating trend, and the spot price is likely to fluctuate upward.

Cobalt Chloride:

This week, the price of cobalt chloride showed a slight rebound. Supply side, the market is gradually becoming more rational, and cobalt chloride producers are no longer adhering to the strategy of not selling, with their willingness to sell increasing. Demand side, the main purchasers of Co3O4 still maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and although the number of inquiries has increased, the actual trading volume remains limited. Looking ahead, the market will still be affected by the cobalt export ban, and panic sentiment may persist. Some producers may choose to maintain current prices and adopt a strategy of holding back sales, which could lead to a further increase in cobalt chloride prices.

Cobalt Salt (Co3O4):

This week, the price of Co3O4 dropped back slightly. Supply side, most smelters' quotes have stabilized, and the market is gradually returning to rationality. Demand side, most producers have completed their procurement earlier, so new orders this week were relatively few, market acceptance of high prices has decreased, and activity has weakened, entering a buffer period. In the short term, the price of Co3O4 is expected to remain at a relatively high level, but due to weak purchase willingness from downstream LCO producers and some resistance sentiment, the price may continue to decline next week.

Cobalt Powder and Others:

This week, trading activity in the cobalt powder market was mainly dominated by small spot orders, lacking support from large orders. Alloy demand has not shown significant improvement, and with high cobalt powder prices, downstream purchasers are cautious about the market outlook and are reluctant to increase inventory, mostly maintaining a strategy of purchasing as needed.

Ternary Cathode Precursor:

This week, the ternary cathode precursor market remained firm, with prices for 5-series for consumer electronics, 6-series for consumer electronics, and 8-series for NEV products showing little fluctuation. In terms of raw material costs, the prices of nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate rose slightly, while cobalt sulphate showed short-term fluctuations due to the cobalt export ban in the DRC and market sentiment disturbances, driving slight increases in precursor prices across different series. Demand side, affected by the sharp rise in raw material prices in March, some cathode material producers may sign small orders for early stockpiling, but the overall market remains cautiously watchful, closely monitoring international trade policies and developments. The supply of precursors for power applications still mainly relies on previously signed long-term contracts, while precursors for consumer electronics, being more price-sensitive, are mostly traded in spot orders. Supply side, rising raw material prices and long-term losses have strengthened precursor producers' willingness to stand firm on quotes, and transaction prices remain firm. Long-term contract execution is stable, while spot order pricing is negotiated separately for nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate. Looking ahead to next week, raw material prices may continue to fluctuate slightly under the influence of market sentiment and international trade policies. Precursor prices are expected to remain relatively firm overall, showing slight fluctuations.

Ternary Cathode Material:

This week, ternary cathode material prices showed slight upward fluctuations, mainly driven by slight increases in nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices, offsetting the impact of fluctuating lithium chemical prices. Overall market supply is still dominated by historically signed long-term contracts, whose discount coefficients have not been adjusted, and price increases are mainly reflected in spot order quotes. As the procurement order coefficients signed between material producers and upstream precursor producers have been adjusted upward, ternary cathode material production costs remain high, and material prices remain relatively firm. In terms of production and orders, affected by the sharp rise in raw material prices in March, some battery cell manufacturers chose to place orders in advance, stockpiling in March to meet subsequent production needs. At the same time, recent overseas demand for ternary cathode materials has increased, and some material producers' overseas tolling business orders have increased, driving an overall improvement in market order conditions, with April production schedules expected to be stable with some increases. In the short term, ternary cathode material prices are expected to remain firm, fluctuating with raw material prices.

LCO:

This week, LCO prices declined slightly. As of March 27, the mainstream quotations for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V LCO were 205,000 yuan/mt, 209,000 yuan/mt, and 220,000 yuan/mt, respectively. Earlier, the sharp increase in upstream raw material Co3O4 prices drove LCO producers to stand firm on quotes, but recently, downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials has been insufficient, and trading has been weak. Co3O4 prices have dropped back slightly, and LCO prices have followed suit. Supply side, some small and medium-sized LCO enterprises have suspended taking orders or are only executing previously signed long-term contracts due to insufficient raw material inventory, while only top-tier enterprises maintain normal production with stable supply chains. In the short term, LCO prices still have upward support, but the increase may narrow further, mainly because the DRC will evaluate the effect of the export ban in April. If the ban is extended or quota policies are adjusted, raw material shortages may intensify.

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News:

【US President Trump Announces 25% Tariff on All Imported Cars】US President Trump signed an executive order at the White House on March 26, announcing a 25% tariff on all imported cars. The measures will take effect on April 2. Trump said the car tariffs will be permanent. He stated that if cars are made in the US, no tariffs will be imposed. Trump said that Tesla CEO Elon Musk has not made any suggestions regarding car tariffs nor asked for any benefits from them. Trump also said that the US will impose tariffs on wood and drugs.
【Henan: Aim to Complete Scrappage and Renewal of Around 500,000 Personal Consumer Vehicles by the End of 2025】The Henan Provincial Development and Reform Commission and others released the "Implementation Plan for Henan Province to Expand Large-Scale Equipment Updates and Consumer Trade-in in 2025." The plan clearly states that by the end of 2025, the goal is to complete the scrappage and renewal of around 500,000 personal consumer vehicles, trade-in of over 8 million home appliances, promote the scrappage and renewal of about 4,700 old commercial trucks and 18,000 sets of agricultural machinery, update 800 new energy city buses and 4,500 power batteries, and further release the consumption potential of digital products, e-bikes, home and furniture products, etc.
【Trump Announces Tariff Hike on Imported Cars, Foreign Ministry: US Actions Violate WTO Rules】Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun presided over a regular press conference on March 27. A RIA Novosti reporter asked how US President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on all imported cars would affect China-US cooperation. "We have noted that the US's major trading partners have already responded," Guo Jiakun said. Trade wars and tariff wars have no winners, and no country's development and prosperity are achieved through tariff hikes. The US's actions violate WTO rules, harm the rules-based multilateral trading system and the common interests of people in all countries, and are not conducive to solving its own problems.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Cong Wang 021-51666838

Rui Ma 021-51595780

Ziya Lin 86-2151666902

Disheng Feng 021-51666714

Yanlin Lü 021-20707875

Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711

Zihan Wang 021-51666914

Jie Wang 021-51595902

He Zhang 021-20707850

Haohan Zhang 021-51666752

Yang Xu 021-51666760

Bolin Chen 021-51666836

Mengqi Xu 021-20707868