Futures market: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,966/mt, initially reaching a high of $2,974/mt before slightly declining below the daily average line, then recovering the losses. During European trading hours, longs reduced positions, causing LME zinc to continuously decline and test a low of $2,934/mt. However, entering the night session, LME zinc rebounded and fluctuated near the daily average line, eventually closing down at $2,952/mt, a decrease of $16.5/mt, or 0.56%. Trading volume decreased to 70,105 lots, while open interest decreased by 457 lots to 226,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2505 contract opened at 24,085 yuan/mt. Initially, longs reduced positions, causing SHFE zinc to quickly decline and test a low of 24,045 yuan/mt. Subsequently, shorts reduced positions, pushing SHFE zinc above the daily average line, with the center fluctuating around 24,150 yuan/mt. It eventually closed at 24,155 yuan/mt, with a % change of 0%. Trading volume decreased to 64,751 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,904 lots to 123,000 lots.
Macro: Trump: Impose a 25% tariff on all imported cars, and the reciprocal tariff plan will be "lenient"; US Fed's Kashkari: More work is needed to reduce inflation, and the job market remains strong; US Treasury Secretary Besant: An economic agreement with Ukraine may be signed next week; Kremlin: Putin's order to suspend energy strikes remains in effect; He Lifeng held a video call with US Trade Representative Greer; President of Bank of China: "Hangzhou Six Dragons" credit coverage rate ranks first among all financial institutions.
Spot market:
Shanghai: In the morning session, market quotations were at premiums of 0~20 yuan/mt against the average price, with fewer quotations against the futures market. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic quotations were at discounts of 10~premiums of 10 yuan/mt against the 2504 contract, Baiyin was at parity against the 2504 contract, and the high-priced brand Shuangyan was at premiums of 30-50 yuan/mt against the 2504 contract. The futures market continued to fluctuate, with downstream companies persistently purchasing as needed. Yesterday's inquiries and purchases remained average. Although some traders were unwilling to sell at low prices and stood firm on quotes, the poor transaction performance led to insufficient upward momentum in spot premiums, and the overall market sentiment remained low with no improvement.
Guangdong: Spot premiums against Shanghai were 20 yuan/mt, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread remained unchanged. In the first session, suppliers quoted discounts of 35~10 yuan/mt for Qilin, Mengzi, Huize, Danxia, and Lanzinc. In the second session, Qilin and Mengzi quoted discounts of 30~25 yuan/mt against the net price. Overall, the futures market remained at highs yesterday. Downstream companies had previously restocked at low prices and were cautious about high prices, leading to weaker market transactions. Some traders lowered premiums to sell, causing spot premiums and discounts to slightly decline.
Tianjin: Tianjin market quoted discounts of around 10 yuan/mt against Shanghai. By the close of the morning session, Xinsi quoted premiums of 30~60 yuan/mt against the 04 contract, factory-delivered Xikuang quoted discounts of 0~40 yuan/mt against the 04 contract, Bailing delivered quoted around 60 yuan/mt against the 05 contract, and the high-priced brand Zijin quoted premiums of 80~100 yuan/mt against the 04 contract. Yesterday, zinc prices mainly fluctuated, and downstream companies found it difficult to accept. With new long-term contracts beginning to be executed, some downstream companies focused on long-term contracts, while a few restocked for urgent needs. Traders slightly lowered premiums to sell, and overall transactions were average.
Ningbo: Spot quotations against Shanghai were at premiums of 40 yuan/mt, and mainstream quotations in Ningbo were against the 2504 contract. In the first session, Qilin quoted premiums of 30~60 yuan/mt against the 2504 contract, and Honglu-v quoted premiums of 20 yuan/mt against the 2504 contract. In the second session, traders' quotations remained unchanged from the previous session. Qilin zinc ingots gradually entered the warehouse, and there were slight differences in quotations among traders. However, downstream companies maintained purchasing as needed, and purchases were not active. Overall transactions showed no significant improvement, and premiums remained stable.
Social inventory: On March 26, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,650 mt to 146,575 mt, a drop of 2.43%. According to SMM communication, as of March 24, the total zinc ingot inventory in seven regions monitored by SMM was 128,900 mt, a decrease of 9,900 mt from March 17 and 2,100 mt from March 20, indicating a reduction in domestic inventory.
Zinc price forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candle, with the upper Bollinger Band forming resistance and the 20/60-day moving averages providing support. Insiders said Trump is preparing to announce car tariffs as early as this Wednesday local time, and the US dollar index rose, suppressing LME zinc's performance. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candle, with the upper Bollinger Band forming resistance and the 10/60-day moving averages providing support. Domestic supply is expected to continue to ease, and downstream consumption is expected to gradually return to normal. Zinc prices may maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.
