The Surge in Humanoid Robot Sales Boosts the Concept of Rare Earth Permanent Magnets, While the Imminent Customs Clearance of Myanmar Mines Puts Pressure on Spot Rare Earth [SMM Express]
SMM Flash: Humanoid Robot Sales Surge Boosts Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Concept, Myanmar Mine Clearance Imminent, Spot Rare Earth Under Pressure. According to CCTV Finance, humanoid robot producers are overwhelmed with orders, overseas tech bloggers are enamored with domestic robots, and the anticipated demand for humanoid robots is driving the rare earth permanent magnet concept higher. Additionally, the expected continuous growth in demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials from downstream industries such as NEVs, along with sector valuation recovery, led to a rise in the rare earth permanent magnet concept on March 26. By the close of the 26th, the rare earth permanent magnet concept index rose by 1.89%, with stocks like Yujing Technology, Huahong Technology, and Tianhe Magnetic Materials hitting the limit up.
Spot market: Affected by the news that Myanmar's rare earth mines are about to clear customs, spot prices for rare earths are under pressure and trending downward.
News: The Ministry of Commerce stated that humanoid robots and other embodied intelligent products have become new highlights in digital consumption. The head of the E-commerce Department of the Ministry of Commerce said that from January to February 2025, China's e-commerce sector saw continuous release of internal momentum, innovation potential, and openness, achieving a good start. Artificial intelligence and trade-in policies boosted steady growth in online retail sales of goods. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, physical online retail sales grew by 5%. According to business big data monitoring, humanoid robots and other embodied intelligent products have become new highlights in digital consumption. Over 90% of provinces and cities have cooperated with platforms to carry out trade-in activities, with three categories of digital products, including mobile phones, growing by 17.9%. Supply-side optimization drove rapid growth in online services. Favorable policies such as the Spring Festival intangible cultural heritage and the expansion of visa-free entry boosted online tourism by 35.9%, with intangible cultural heritage tourism growing nearly fourfold. High-quality supply in movies, concerts, etc., drove online entertainment growth by 52.5%.
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic robot market has been continuously "upgrading," with the popularity of humanoid robots remaining high. A robot manufacturer in Suzhou stated that orders for humanoid robots are already scheduled until May and June, and every unit produced is immediately delivered. With continuously evolving skills and relatively low prices, China's "new tech favorites" are attracting global consumers. As one of the main overseas buyers, many tech bloggers are sharing unboxing videos of Chinese-made robots on video platforms. (CCTV Finance)
According to a notice issued by the Kachin State Government of Myanmar's Central Ministry of Finance regarding the export of rare earths, legally mined and long-stocked rare earths from the eastern province mining area will officially clear customs starting from March 27, 2025, in accordance with government customs regulations.
Spot market: Click to view SMM metal rare earth spot prices. Click to order and view SMM metal spot historical price trends. In the rare earth spot market, affected by the market news that Myanmar's mines are about to resume imports, market sentiment has weakened, and spot prices across the rare earth industry chain, from rare earth mines, rare earth oxides, rare earth metals to NdFeB scrap, are generally weak. Taking SMM's Pr-Nd oxide price trend as an example, its average price on March 26 was 440,000 yuan/mt, down 2,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.56%.
Regarding the future of the rare earth spot market, the first batch of rare earth mining quotas for 2025 is about to be issued, and the market is focusing on the implementation of rare earth mining indicators. As Myanmar is one of China's important sources of rare earth imports, the imminent customs clearance of Myanmar's rare earth mines will effectively increase the supply of rare earths in the market, alleviating the previous tight supply caused by the blockage of Myanmar's mines. The low inventory of ion-adsorption ore in some domestic companies is expected to be replenished in time, which will weaken the support for rare earth prices from the supply side. It is expected that before the issuance of rare earth mining indicators, the increase in supply brought by the customs clearance of Myanmar's rare earth mines may suppress the performance of rare earth spot prices.
Voices from all sides: Guojin Securities believes that as the issuance of the first batch of quotas for 2025 approaches, based on the overall downward trend of rare earth prices in 2024 and the relatively small rebound from the bottom, the bank believes that the quota growth rate for 2025 may continue to remain low. Downstream humanoid robots and the low-altitude economy are expected to continuously open up new demand in the rare earth field, and magnetic material targets are expected to resonate with rare earth resource targets. Industry supply-side reforms, supply disruptions in Myanmar, and the upward shift of the cost curve, combined with continued improvement in supply and demand, are expected to lead to a dual increase in performance and valuation in the rare earth sector. Additionally, as a globally leading advantageous industry priced by China, the overall attention to the rare earth sector is expected to significantly increase against the backdrop of deglobalization.
Tianfeng Securities' research report estimates that based on a unit usage of 2-4 kg of NdFeB per humanoid robot, assuming a long-term target of 100 million units, the demand for magnetic materials will reach 200,000-400,000 mt, equivalent to recreating a rare earth permanent magnet market, with vast long-term space.
CITIC Securities analysis believes that at the policy level, the draft detailed rules for the rare earth management regulations emphasize that rare earth indicators will only be issued to rare earth groups, and future rare earth resources may further concentrate in large rare earth groups. Imported ore control may be further strengthened, and the rigid logic of the rare earth industry's supply side will continue to strengthen. The release of the draft rare earth product information traceability management measures will also help the standardized development of the rare earth industry. On the demand side, the institution believes that 2025 is expected to be the first year of mass production of humanoid robots, and the industry is breaking through the critical point at a super-linear speed. High-performance NdFeB, as a key material for robot motors, is expected to fully benefit in the future. Rare earths are national strategic resources, and total management and traceability systems will help ensure the security of strategic resources and promote high-quality development of the industry.
데이터 출처 설명: 공개 정보를 제외한 모든 데이터는 SMM이 공개 정보, 시장 커뮤니케이션 및 SMM 내부 데이터베이스 모델을 기반으로 가공한 것입니다. 본 자료는 참고용이며 의사결정 권고를 구성하지 않습니다.
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