[SMM Cobalt and Lithium Morning Meeting Summary] Influenced by Co3O4, LCO Prices Continue to Rise
SMM Cobalt and Lithium Morning Meeting Summary: On Monday, ternary cathode material prices rose slightly, mainly due to a slight increase in nickel sulphate prices and the factor of ternary cathode material enterprises standing firm on quotes for spot cargo. In the spot market, spot order transactions remained low. Previously, the procurement order coefficients of some cathode and precursor enterprises had increased, keeping the production costs and prices of ternary cathode materials relatively high.
Lepidolite: Despite upstream suppliers' persistent sentiment to stand firm on quotes, downstream smelters, facing continuously declining lithium carbonate prices, showed very weak willingness to purchase previously high-priced lepidolite concentrates, forcing market prices down.
Lithium Carbonate: At the beginning of this week, the transaction price center of spot lithium carbonate continued to shift downward. From the current perspective of both sellers and buyers, upstream lithium chemical plants maintained a strong stance on standing firm on quotes, while downstream material plants showed increased willingness to stockpile at low price points. With the upcoming concentrated warrant cancellation, traders adjusted their inventory structures, leading to the sale of some lower-quality lithium carbonate at lower prices. Overall, the market transaction price center continued to move downward. Although lithium chemical plants maintained a firm stance, considering the ongoing inventory buildup and the slight easing of ore prices, it is expected that lithium carbonate still has some downside room, accompanied by sideways movement.
Lithium Hydroxide: At the beginning of this week, lithium hydroxide prices continued to decline slightly WoW. On the demand side, some buyers, at the end of the month/quarter, began negotiating new orders for the next month/Q2. Given the current demand growth lagging behind supply, they are pushing for discounts. Upstream lithium chemical plants, supported by strong cost positions, are maintaining a firm stance on discounts and spot prices. With limited spot transactions and continuously falling prices, lithium hydroxide prices are expected to continue their slight downward trend in the short term.
Refined Cobalt: At the beginning of this week, spot refined cobalt prices rose slightly. In terms of supply, smelters, influenced by the potential extension of DRC's suspension of cobalt product exports, generally paused quotations to maintain prices. On the demand side, some manufacturers had already completed their purchases, resulting in fewer inquiries from downstream buyers and lower actual transactions. However, as the month-end approached, traders' inventory liquidation and delivery warehouse transfers came to an end, and speculative sentiment for refined cobalt remained strong due to recent news. It is expected that, in the short term, panic sentiment may not ease, and spot refined cobalt prices will fluctuate upward.
Intermediate Product: At the beginning of this week, spot cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable. In terms of supply, logistics from South Africa to Chinese ports operated normally, but the expectation of supply contraction due to DRC's suspension of cobalt product exports continued to ferment, with upstream manufacturers maintaining high spot prices and limited market circulation. On the demand side, downstream inquiries were active, but the expected procurement prices of downstream buyers and the quoted prices of manufacturers had a gap, leading to low actual transactions. This week, the market is expected to gradually digest the impact of DRC's news, and cobalt intermediate product prices may fluctuate upward.
Cobalt Salt (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride): At the beginning of this week, cobalt sulphate prices increased. Previously, a DRC government spokesperson stated that the ban on cobalt product exports might be extended. Stimulated by this news, some salt plants strengthened their sentiment to hold back supplies and raise prices due to concerns over raw material shortages. On the demand side, downstream enterprises slightly raised their expected purchase prices, but actual transactions were mainly for restocking, with overall sentiment remaining cautious. Market transactions were mainly sporadic, with no large-scale concentrated procurement. This week, salt plants are expected to continue their strategy of controlling supply and maintaining high prices, and cobalt sulphate prices may maintain a fluctuating upward trend.
At the beginning of this week, cobalt chloride prices declined slightly. In terms of supply, market sentiment gradually eased, and cobalt chloride producers became more willing to sell. On the demand side, major Co3O4 buyers remained cautious, although inquiries increased, actual transaction volumes were still low. In the future, the market will continue to be affected by the cobalt export ban, and panic sentiment may persist. Some producers may choose to maintain current prices and adopt a惜售策略, which could lead to a slight increase in cobalt chloride prices.
Cobalt Salt (Co3O4): At the beginning of this week, Co3O4 prices showed little fluctuation. In terms of supply, most smelters suspended quotations, hoping for higher profits. Although a few companies provided quotes, the prices were high, and only urgent orders accepted these prices, while most manufacturers had already completed their purchases, resulting in fewer new orders this week. On the demand side, LCO plants showed lower-than-expected purchasing willingness and were reluctant to accept high Co3O4 prices. In the short term, Co3O4 prices may remain high, but the tug-of-war between the high-price intentions of the supply side and the resistance of the demand side will limit further price increases.
Nickel Sulphate: On March 24, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 27,926 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 27,900-28,420 yuan/mt, a slight increase from last week. In terms of costs, the MHP transaction coefficient recently rose slightly. For auxiliary materials, the price of sulphuric acid increased slightly, leading to a slight rise in MHP costs. In terms of demand, this week is a traditional procurement period, and precursor plants will stockpile, increasing their acceptance of nickel sulphate prices. From the supply perspective, nickel salt smelters' inventories are at low levels, and the market supply of nickel salts is tight, with a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Currently, buyers and sellers are still in a price negotiation, and it is expected that prices will continue to rise, but the increase will be limited.
Ternary Cathode Precursor: This week, the prices of 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary cathode precursors all continued to rise slightly. In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate prices increased slightly, manganese sulphate prices remained stable, and cobalt sulphate, influenced by the DRC cobalt export ban and market sentiment, showed a short-term fluctuating trend, leading to varying degrees of price increases for different series of precursors. On the demand side, material plants generally maintained a cautious attitude. Top-tier enterprises may sign a few spot orders to replenish basic inventory, but mainly rely on long-term contracts for supply. Small and medium-sized manufacturers, due to the consumption of historical inventory, have some purchasing needs, but the procurement volume is limited, and overall market demand is weak. In terms of supply, the rising raw material costs have further exacerbated the losses of precursor manufacturers, who have a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Some manufacturers may separately calculate the discount coefficients for nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate. This week, raw material prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly. Under the combined effect of the strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes by precursor manufacturers and the downstream restocking demand, precursor prices are expected to remain relatively firm and show a slight fluctuating trend.
Ternary Cathode Material: On Monday, ternary cathode material prices rose slightly, mainly due to the slight increase in nickel sulphate prices and the efforts of ternary material enterprises to raise prices in the spot market. Spot market transactions were still limited. Previously, the procurement order coefficients of some cathode and precursor enterprises had increased, keeping the production costs and prices of ternary materials high.
데이터 출처 설명: 공개 정보를 제외한 모든 데이터는 SMM이 공개 정보, 시장 커뮤니케이션 및 SMM 내부 데이터베이스 모델을 기반으로 가공한 것입니다. 본 자료는 참고용이며 의사결정 권고를 구성하지 않습니다.
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