After the COMEX price surged in May 2024, the LME-COMEX price spread significantly widened, leading to changes in global copper cathode trade flows. Entering 2025, due to expectations of Trump's tariffs, global large traders shipped all deliverable sources to the US, reducing the amount of copper cathode imports that would have come to China.
In January 2025, China's imports from Chile and Peru were down 54.60% and 36.91% YoY; in February 2025, they were down 45.63% and 64.28% YoY. The reduction in imports from these two countries was greater than the overall decrease in total imports. Notably, the proportion of non-registered import sources in total imports continued to rise significantly, reaching nearly 70% in both January and February.
Despite the overall decrease in total imports in January-February 2025, imports from the DRC increased 19.02% YoY in January and 4.64% YoY in February. After the Chinese New Year, as copper prices surged, such non-registered sources were snapped up at low prices in the Chinese market, with the price difference from registered copper gradually narrowing.
Looking ahead, by March 19, the COMEX and LME copper prices had risen by over $1,400/mt, and the US continues to siphon off global copper cathode supplies. It is expected that the volume of registered imported copper coming to China will continue to decrease YoY, and total imports will also decline, with the share of non-registered imports further increasing.