Import Losses Widen, Net Imports of Primary Aluminum Plunged YoY in January-February

SMM March 22 News:

Primary Aluminum Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminum imports in January 2025 were approximately 161,000 mt, almost flat MoM and down 34.8% YoY; in February, imports were about 200,000 mt, up 24.0% MoM and down 10.7% YoY. The total cumulative imports for January-February 2025 were around 362,000 mt, down 23.4% YoY.

Primary Aluminum Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminum exports in January 2025 were approximately 8,000 mt, down 33.4% MoM and up 814.8% YoY; in February, exports were about 3,000 mt, down 59% MoM and up YoY. The total cumulative exports for January-February 2025 were around 12,000 mt, up 1,116.9% YoY.

Net Primary Aluminum Imports: The cumulative net imports of primary aluminum for January-February 2025 were approximately 349,800 mt, down 25.7% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010)

From the perspective of import sources, the main countries and regions of origin for domestic primary aluminum imports in January-February 2025 were the Russian Federation, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and others. Among these, the total imports from Russia in January-February were about 313,300 mt, up 13.1% YoY, accounting for 87% of the total imports for January-February. Additionally, the imports from China in January-February were about 8,600 mt, down 63.3% YoY. This portion mainly consisted of Chinese alumina exported to Russia, processed into aluminum ingots, and then re-imported to the Chinese market. In terms of the origin of the ingots, it was still primarily Russian aluminum. Therefore, the total imports from Russian sources in January-February reached 321,900 mt, accounting for 89% of the total domestic primary aluminum imports. Currently, overseas primary aluminum imports are in a loss state, and the import losses are widening. Notably, some non-major import sources increased in January-February 2025, such as Qatar and Austria.

From the perspective of trade modes: In terms of the trade modes for primary aluminum imports in January-February, the import losses widened, and suppliers' willingness to clear customs and send to the Chinese market decreased. Most imports were under long-term contracts, with the cumulative total imports significantly down 23.4% YoY.

SMM Brief Comment: The current aluminum prices still maintain an LME outperforms SHFE trend, with the domestic import window closed and import losses fluctuating around 2,600 yuan/mt. Overseas suppliers' willingness to clear customs and send to China has decreased. SMM expects that in March 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports will mainly be under long-term contracts, and it will be difficult to see an increase in net imports.