【SMM Analysis: China's Aluminum Profile Exports DROP 27.02% YoY, Jan-Feb 2025】

SMM, March 21:

General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China indicated China's aluminum profile exports was 124,700 metric tons in Jan-Feb 2025 (HS Codes as above), down 27.02% YoY. Specifically, January exports registered 85,200 tons (+14.94% MoM, -21.31% YoY), while February exports plunged to 39,600 tons (-53.52% MoM, -36.82% YoY).

Breakdown by export origin:

Regional patterns remained largely stable, with Guangdong dominating at 56.20% of February exports, followed by Shandong (10.35%) and Jiangsu (9.38%). Notably, Chongqing and Hunan Province saw explosive growth with +352.13% and +81.98% MoM respectively. Tianjin and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region posted moderate increases of +28.50% and +19.33% MoM, while other provinces registered declines, attributable to Spring Festival Holiday closures and overseas tariff policy uncertainties.

Top export markets:

Southeast Asian nations continued to dominate the top 10 destinations. Vietnam led with 8.76% market share, followed by Malaysia (6.12%) and Israel (5.86%).

Market dynamics and Forecast:

Overall, China's aluminum profile exports experienced a notable decline during January-February 2025. The cancellation of export tax rebates and adjustments to U.S. tariff policies have left many exporters in a wait-and-see mode. According to the SMM survey, domestic aluminum enterprises are actively adapting to export policy changes by expanding into East Asian and African markets, strengthening cooperation with enterprises in Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, and South Africa. However, the current market generally reflects an observation pattern characterized by "more inquiries than actual transactions."

This phenomenon can be attributed to two main factors: Firstly, intensified fluctuations in international aluminum prices have created pricing consensus divergences among buyers, prompting them to defer their orders. Secondly, although East Asian and African markets represent potential growth areas, local enterprises maintain cautious procurement attitudes amid global economic slowdown and rising trade barriers. Additionally, intensified competition from low-cost aluminum products originating from Russia and India has further suppressed the actual transaction conversion rate of Chinese aluminum products.

It is projected that aluminum product exports will maintain a weakening trend in March. Close monitoring of overseas tariff adjustments on aluminum products remains crucial.