Cobalt Product Prices Show Mixed Changes, Co3O4 Soar 10,000 Yuan, Most Smelters Still Halt Quotations [Weekly Observation]

SMM March 21 News: After the DRC's ban on cobalt exports had been fermenting for nearly a month, the market is gradually digesting the impact of this news. The previous high prices of cobalt products have made downstream buyers cautious, and spot quotes at various stages are beginning to loosen... SMM has compiled the price fluctuations of related cobalt products this week, as follows: Refined Cobalt: According to SMM spot quotes, after a rapid increase in the early period, refined cobalt spot prices began to pull back slightly recently. As of March 21, the spot price of refined cobalt fell to 233,000~254,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 243,500 yuan/mt, down 4,000 yuan/mt from March 14, a decline of 1.62%. 》

According to the SMM survey, from the supply side, the supply of refined cobalt is relatively sufficient. Affected by the high upstream raw material prices, smelter profits have pulled back, and the willingness to sell has decreased. From the demand side, downstream inquiries are slightly weaker, overseas trading sentiment has deteriorated, and the export price of refined cobalt has pulled back. SMM expects that next week, the spot price of refined cobalt may continue to weaken. Cobalt Salt (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride): Cobalt Sulphate: According to SMM spot quotes, after a significant increase in the early period, cobalt sulphate spot prices also saw a slight pullback this week. As of March 21, the spot price of cobalt sulphate fell to 48,500~50,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 49,650 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt from March 14, a decline of 0.7%. 》

According to the SMM survey, from the supply side, the quotes from upstream salt plants have decreased compared to last week, and some traders have started to offload old inventory, causing some disturbance to market sentiment. Downstream enterprises are in a wait-and-see mode, and the enthusiasm for restocking has declined, leading to slightly poorer liquidity. It is expected that next week, downstream enterprises will gradually start to restock based on rigid demand, and the spot price of cobalt sulphate may turn from weak to strong. Cobalt Chloride: According to SMM spot quotes, although the spot price of cobalt chloride fell in the last two trading days, the previous gains can still offset the decline. As of March 21, the spot price of cobalt chloride remained at 58,000~61,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 59,500 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from March 14, an increase of 0.85%. Regarding the recent price drop of cobalt chloride, according to SMM, from the supply side, market sentiment has gradually eased, and the reluctance of cobalt chloride producers to sell has begun to ease, significantly increasing their willingness to sell, which has led to a decrease in cobalt chloride quotes. From the demand side, the main buyer, Co3O4 manufacturers, are concerned about potential losses due to falling raw material prices after purchasing, and have actively delayed purchases, showing a clear wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that next week, as panic sentiment gradually subsides, the market will become more rational, and the lack of transactions may prompt some producers to continue lowering prices to improve liquidity, which could lead to a further decline in cobalt chloride prices.

Co3O4: According to SMM spot quotes, the spot price of Co3O4 continued to rise this week. As of March 21, the spot price of Co3O4 increased to 19,700~22,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 212,500 yuan/mt, up 10,000 yuan/mt from 202,500 yuan/mt on March 14, an increase of 4.94%. According to the SMM survey, from the supply side, most Co3O4 smelters are still suspending quotes, hoping to wait for a higher profit window. A few companies, although providing quotes, have set them at a high level, forcing some rigid orders to accept the high prices, thus pushing up the transaction prices in the spot market. From the demand side, the purchase willingness of downstream LCO factories is lower than expected, and their acceptance of high Co3O4 prices is limited. At the same time, the downward trend in the price of raw material cobalt salts has intensified the wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Looking ahead, SMM expects that in the short term, the price of Co3O4 will maintain a fluctuating upward trend, but the firm pricing intention on the supply side and the resistance on the demand side will form a tug-of-war, limiting the room for further price increases. If the consumption of LCO inventory is slower than expected, the price of Co3O4 may experience a temporary pullback.

In terms of news, according to Mining.com, the latest analysis report by risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft shows that tariffs and market turmoil have forced countries rich in key minerals such as cobalt, copper, gold, and lithium to exert more control over their resources than ever before. According to the latest information from Cailian Press on March 20, the DRC is considering measures to strengthen the temporary ban on cobalt exports, including cooperation with Indonesia, the world's second-largest cobalt supplier. At the end of February, the DRC government announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports, causing the previously oversupplied and continuously declining cobalt prices to rise. The DRC stated that it would review the ban after three months and may modify or terminate it based on the results. Now, the government is considering formulating long-term policies to increase the added value of cobalt resource extraction and processing, and to prevent a large influx of stockpiled cobalt into the market, which could impact prices, once the ban is lifted. According to the minutes of a cabinet meeting on March 14, the Economic Situation Committee, led by DRC Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka, proposed a series of recommendations to "effectively manage" the export ban. These include "seeking cooperation with Indonesia" to "better control" the global supply and price of cobalt. Public data shows that the DRC is the world's largest cobalt producer, accounting for more than three-quarters of global cobalt production. However, Indonesia's share of the cobalt market is also growing, and by 2024, Indonesia's cobalt supply will account for 11% of the global cobalt supply surplus. Therefore, if both parties reach a cooperation agreement, their control over the cobalt market will be further enhanced. Moreover, the minutes also show that the DRC Economic Situation Committee suggested implementing an export quota system to increase local processing capacity, but no specific details were provided. In fact, the DRC government has been considering restrictions on the production or export of cobalt for more than a year.