[SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary] Top-Tier Enterprise Uses Inventory to Fulfill Long-Term Contract Orders Market Circulating Supply Remains Low

Electrolytic Cobalt: This week, the spot price of electrolytic cobalt fell. From the supply side, the supply of electrolytic cobalt was relatively sufficient. Affected by the high prices of upstream raw materials, smelter profits pulled back, and the willingness to sell decreased. From the demand side, downstream inquiries were slightly weaker, overseas trading sentiment cooled, and the export price of electrolytic cobalt pulled back. It is expected that next week, the spot price of electrolytic cobalt may continue to weaken.

Intermediate Product: This week, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products rose slightly as the market continued to gradually digest the impact of the DRC export ban. From the supply side, some top-tier enterprises began to fulfill long-term orders with inventory, and the proportion of spot orders was low, keeping the market's circulating supply at a low level. From the demand side, the processing fees for downstream salt plants dropped slightly, and purchasing enthusiasm declined somewhat. It is expected that next week, downstream enterprises will gradually start restocking, and the price of cobalt intermediate products may remain stable.

Cobalt Sulphate: This week, the spot price of cobalt sulphate decreased slightly. From the supply side, the quotations from upstream salt plants were lower than last week, and some traders started to sell old inventories, causing some disturbance in market sentiment. Downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the willingness to restock decreased, leading to slightly poorer market liquidity. It is expected that next week, downstream enterprises will gradually start restocking out of necessity, and the spot price of cobalt sulphate may turn from weak to strong.

Cobalt Chloride: This week, the price of cobalt chloride experienced a slight decline. From the supply side, market sentiment had gradually eased, and the reluctance of cobalt chloride producers to sell began to soften, significantly increasing their willingness to sell, which led to a decrease in quotations. From the demand side, major buyers, such as Co3O4 manufacturers, were concerned about potential losses due to falling raw material prices after procurement, and thus actively delayed purchases, showing a clear wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that next week, as panic sentiment gradually subsides, the market will become more rational. The cold trading situation may prompt some producers to continue lowering prices to improve liquidity, potentially leading to a further decline in cobalt chloride prices.

Cobalt Salt (Co3O4): This week, the price of Co3O4 continued to show an upward trend. From the supply side, most Co3O4 smelters were still holding back on quotations, hoping for higher profit margins. A few companies provided quotations, but at higher prices, forcing some rigid-demand orders to accept these high prices, thereby pushing up the spot market transaction prices. From the demand side, the purchase willingness of downstream LCO plants was lower than expected, and their acceptance of high Co3O4 prices was limited. Meanwhile, the downward trend in the prices of raw cobalt salts increased market观望情绪。短期内，四氧化三钴价格会维持偏强运行，但供应端的坚挺价格意愿与需求端的抵触情绪形成拉锯，限制了价格的进一步上涨空间。如果钴酸锂库存消耗不及预期，四氧化三钴价格可能会出现阶段性的回调。

Cobalt Powder and Others: This week, the cobalt powder market was significantly affected by cobalt prices. Despite no significant improvement in alloy demand, the trading atmosphere was somewhat subdued. The supply situation of raw material cobalt carbonate also impacted the cobalt powder market, and the low willingness of suppliers to sell might further suppress the trading activity in the cobalt powder market. Market participants need to closely monitor changes in alloy demand and raw material supply dynamics to formulate reasonable procurement and sales strategies.

Ternary Cathode Precursor: This week, the price increase of 5-series consumer, 6-series consumer, and 8-series power-type ternary cathode precursors slowed down. In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate prices rose slightly, manganese sulphate prices remained stable, and cobalt sulphate, after three consecutive weeks of significant increases, entered a short-term fluctuating adjustment phase, with a slight pullback, leading to varying degrees of price adjustments in different series of precursor products. From the demand side, influenced by the expectation of continuous raw material price increases and inventory consumption, material plants gradually made small-scale stockpiling. The overall market remained cautious, with purchases mainly driven by rigid demand, and the overall demand in the ternary market was still mediocre. On the supply side, the continuous rise in raw material costs exacerbated the cost inversion phenomenon for precursor manufacturers, who strongly intended to stand firm on quotes. The discount coefficient for spot orders increased, and some manufacturers might calculate the discount coefficients for nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate separately. Looking ahead to next week, raw material prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly. Under the combined effect of the strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes by precursor manufacturers and the restocking demand from downstream, precursor prices will remain relatively firm, or show a slight fluctuating trend.

Ternary Cathode Material: This week, the price of ternary cathode material stabilized, mainly due to the reversal and slight decline in the prices of nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and lithium carbonate. In the spot market, there were still few spot transactions. Although the prices of raw materials on the cost side decreased, the production cost and price of ternary cathode material did not immediately drop because the coefficients of some previous purchase orders between cathode and precursor enterprises had increased. Therefore, this week, the spot market price remained relatively stable.

In terms of production and orders, it is currently expected that the production increase of ternary battery cells in domestic downstream battery factories in April will be relatively small, with a MoM growth rate of less than 5% compared to March. Thus, except for a few top-tier enterprises with increased market share and additional tolling orders, the production schedules of most ternary cathode material plants in April are expected to remain stable. It is expected that in the short term, the price of ternary cathode material will follow the fluctuation of raw material prices.

Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO): This week, the price of LCO continued to rise, driven by the increase in the price of upstream raw material Co3O4, but the increase was slower than last week. The latest prices for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V LCO were 20.6/21.0/221,000 yuan/mt, respectively. Cobalt salt producers generally suspended quotations and held back cargoes, resulting in a "price without market" situation. Domestic LCO enterprises faced difficulties in raw material procurement, with some suspending order taking or only fulfilling previous long-term contracts. On the demand side, orders in the 3C sector (mobile phones, laptops) were stable, and LCO purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand. Currently, upstream cobalt ore traders and smelters are pushing up premiums by holding back supplies, while downstream battery manufacturers have strong bargaining power, putting dual pressure on LCO cathode material enterprises. There is still room for LCO prices to rise, but the increase may narrow.

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