SMM Aluminum Futures Brief: Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cut Boost SHFE Aluminum, Alumina Supply Surplus Remains a Challenge
On March 20, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2505 contract closed up 0.80% at 20,895 yuan/mt. Expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut and favorable domestic policies lifted the market. Coupled with a decline in aluminum inventory of 28,000 mt to 839,000 mt MoM, this supported a rebound in aluminum prices. However, caution is needed regarding potential disruptions from US tariff policies and the strength of demand realization. The most-traded SHFE alumina 2505 contract edged up 0.44%, closing at 2,991 yuan/mt. Spot transactions were weak, with the export window closed and warrant volume increasing to 280,000 mt, prolonging a slight supply surplus, which puts short-term price pressure. SHFE aluminum is supported by policy and destocking logic, but volatility risks persist; alumina fundamentals are loose, with a bearish trend in the short term.
